Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:47:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

51
0x518d…574f
other · 89 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$36 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$38 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses29 / 58
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)87 / 89
History coverage462d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 2 History 87 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$16
14 days+$10
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 71¢ 78¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 98¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 43¢ 42¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $150 +$5 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $348 +$14 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $153 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $117 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $43 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $2 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $275 −$3 -1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $2 $0 +8%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $1,232 −$4 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $215 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $219 +$2 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $156 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 30 $3 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $316 −$3 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 30 $136 +$9 +7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $15 +$15 +100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $137 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $124 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $112 −$44 -39%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $157 $0 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $941 +$1 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 11 $1,887 −$6 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 11 $48 −$19 -40%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $924 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 16 $24 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $924 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $926 −$1 -0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Alexei Gorinov win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Sep 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 16 $10 $0 +2%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 28 $9 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 28 $9 $0 +0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 28 $9 $0 -0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 28 $9 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Jul 28 $14 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 25% on August 15? Jul 28 $4 $0 -2%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Jul 27 $9 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 27 $28 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Belgian Grand Prix? Jul 27 $10 $0 -1%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jul 27 $8 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jul 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jul 26 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 24 $9 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 59% −$33
other 20% −$2
sports 18% −$1
politics 1% −$1
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
finance 0% $0
weather 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $10 38m
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $15 5h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $15 5h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 68¢ $27 13h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 68¢ $128 13h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 66¢ $93 14h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 66¢ $57 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 60¢ $166 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 57¢ $157 17h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 71¢ $6 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 71¢ $147 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 71¢ $153 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 33¢ $64 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 33¢ $42 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 33¢ $11 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 33¢ $117 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 13¢ $18 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 13¢ $22 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 13¢ $3 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 13¢ $43 4d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $2 4d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $154 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $154 5d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 6d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $119 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $119 7d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $142 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.5% -8.2% 33% 0% -8.2%
≤30d 21 +3.8% -6.0% 43% 5% -9.7%
≤90d 28 -2.1% -11.4% 36% 4% -9.9%
all 87 -2.8% -12.0% 33% 1% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 1% -9.9%
10% -20.5% 1% -18.5%
15% -28.1% 1% -26.4%
20% -35.2% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.08 · official $0.00 · 332 history records