Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:06:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x518e…2688 crypto 197 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (442 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$197 (-1%) realized −$356 · open +$159
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%191W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day441.9pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$159now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$78
other 2% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (442 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 196 -0.1% -9.6% 97% 0% -11.1%
≤30d 196 -0.1% -9.6% 97% 0% -11.1%
≤90d 196 -0.1% -9.6% 97% 0% -11.1%
all 196 -0.1% -9.6% 97% 0% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover441.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 0% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 0% -19.6%
15% -26.2% 0% -27.4%
20% -33.4% 0% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$72 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$159
Realized−$356
Unrealized+$159
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses191 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)196 / 197
History coverage2d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day441.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 196 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Down 0¢ 88¢ $0 $159 +$159 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $297 −$19 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $178 +$2 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $178 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $178 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $257 −$27 -10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $25 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $25 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $25 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $178 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $11 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 11m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $159.30 · official $141.30 · 1053 history records