Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:39:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

51
0x5191…4459
sports · 89 markets active 0h ago
0.5score
+$2 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Net worth$19
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses24 / 49
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions16
Markets (closed)73 / 89
History coverage5d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day32.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 16 History 73 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes $1 $2 +$1 (+130%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Yes 48¢ 65¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+35%)
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 53¢ 62¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Will Breel Embolo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 16¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? No 31¢ 34¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 77¢ 82¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 66¢ 67¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Jay Z release an album in 2026? No 44¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Over 43¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner FUT Esports 70¢ 69¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy explode? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? No 20¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Morocco finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027? No 62¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 32¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 22¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? No 63¢ 33¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-48%)
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Down 13¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner MODUS 53¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Down 55¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4PM ET Down 66¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 11? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Natus Vincere 42¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score No 54¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 12? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 +$1 +114%
Will the announcers say "Pressure" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Wor Jun 13 $1 $0 +30%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $1 $0 -25%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +98%
Will Trump attend 0 World Cup matches? Jun 13 $1 $0 -2%
Mistral AI IPO before 2027? Jun 13 $1 $0 -4%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Gior Dota Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 +$1 +86%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 -15%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $0 $0 -50%
Will Qatar recognize Israel by December 31? Jun 12 $1 $0 -0%
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 +$2 +146%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 -24%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -33%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$3 +257%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -95%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 11 $2 $0 +20%
Set Handicap: Bu (-1.5) vs Riedi (+1.5) Jun 11 $2 $0 -4%
Set Handicap: Riedi (-1.5) vs Bu (+1.5) Jun 11 $1 $0 -2%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $1 +$1 +93%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 11 $1 $0 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +47%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $3 −$2 -66%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 11 $1 $0 -2%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 12? Jun 11 $0 $0 -95%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 11 $2 $0 -6%
LoL: Solary vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $1 $0 +24%
Bu vs. Riedi: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $1 $0 -5%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 11 $1 $0 -4%
Yunchaokete Bu vs. Leandro Riedi: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $4 $0 -6%
AI data center in space by December 31, 2027? Jun 11 $1 $0 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 -20%
ITF Tokyo: Sae Noguchi vs Yuno Kitahara Jun 11 $1 +$5 +442%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $2 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 -6%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $1 +$3 +236%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Partizan Sangal - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $1 $0 +27%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $1 +$1 +82%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $1 +$1 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 27% +$8
crypto 22% −$5
world 18% $0
other 14% +$2
weather 10% −$2
politics 3% $0
tech 3% $0
finance 2% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 63¢ $1 9m
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 70¢ $1 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 24¢ $1 1h
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 53¢ $1 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 93¢ $2 1h
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 3h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? BUY No 31¢ $1 3h
Will Trump attend 0 World Cup matches? SELL No 92¢ $1 3h
Mistral AI IPO before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $1 3h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 43¢ $1 3h
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Gior Dota Team - Game 1 Winner SELL Gior Dota Team 100¢ $2 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 3h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $1 5h
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Gior Dota Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Gior Dota Team 53¢ $1 5h
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 66¢ $1 5h
Mistral AI IPO before 2027? BUY No 80¢ $1 6h
Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes $0 6h
Will Qatar recognize Israel by December 31? SELL No 91¢ $1 6h
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $1 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 6h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 100¢ $3 6h
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy explode? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 6h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 7h
Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes $0 7h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 56¢ $1 7h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 40¢ $1 8h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 32¢ $1 8h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 8h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 8h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 81¢ $1 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 -2.0% -11.3% 33% 26% -8.4%
≤30d 73 -2.0% -11.3% 33% 26% -8.4%
≤90d 73 -2.0% -11.3% 33% 26% -8.4%
all 73 -2.0% -11.3% 33% 26% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover32.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.3% 26% -8.4%
10% ← realistic here -19.8% 22% -17.2%
15% -27.6% 16% -25.2%
20% -34.7% 14% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.16 · official $19.16 (match) · 180 history records