Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:57:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
51 0x5192…78a4 world 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 492d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10,326 (-18%) realized −$10,106 · open −$220
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate61%25W / 16L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,374per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$280now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 75% −$14,904
tech 7% +$806
crypto 7% +$1,517
other 5% +$1,844
finance 5% +$86
politics 2% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)+19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 9 +88.9% +70.9% 44% 22% +41.3%
all 41 +32.2% +19.6% 61% 22% -26.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.6% 22% -26.1%
10% +8.2% 22% -33.1%
15% -2.3% 22% -39.6%
20% -11.8% 17% -45.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +56% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$1,502) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late +75% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$274 vs −$1,079 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

492d coverage
Net worth$280
Realized−$10,106
Unrealized−$220
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses25 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage492d
Avg bet$1,374
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? Yes $500 $280 −$220 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $85 +$5 +6%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $334 +$266 +79%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $141 +$1,711 +1211%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $7 −$7 -95%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $21 −$20 -95%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $42 −$40 -96%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $63 −$60 -96%
Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 2? May 16 $2,752 +$86 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Feb 24 $1,422 +$546 +38%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on February 6? Feb 06 $213 +$550 +259%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on February 5? Feb 05 $262 −$41 -16%
Will the price of XRP be less than $1.30 on February 6? Feb 05 $123 +$807 +655%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on February 6? Feb 05 $207 +$414 +200%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on February 6? Feb 03 $402 −$402 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on February 4? Feb 03 $145 −$145 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by Friday? Jan 20 $1,502 +$101 +7%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Jan 20 $1,832 +$1,113 +61%
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? Jan 15 $1,172 −$952 -81%
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 11 $1,911 +$779 +41%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? Nov 21 $93 −$93 -100%
Will Trump’s approval rating be 46.0–46.4% on July 4? Nov 03 $417 +$12 +3%
Diddy released by July 4? Jul 05 $194 +$3 +2%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday? Jul 05 $488 +$12 +2%
Will Trump’s approval rating be ≥46.5% on July 4? Jul 04 $426 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $130 and $140 on July 4? Jul 04 $436 +$9 +2%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15? Jul 04 $146 −$146 -100%
XRP Up or Down on July 2? Jul 03 $82 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2300 and $2400 on July 4? Jul 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump x Putin talk before July? Jul 02 $98 +$2 +2%
Israel strikes Iran before July? Jul 02 $1,321 +$13 +1%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Jun 30 $2,039 −$4 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 30 $2,011 +$27 +1%
US military action against Iran by Saturday? Jun 30 $3,442 −$3,442 -100%
Israel strike on Iran on June 19? Jun 24 $2,000 +$41 +2%
Will Israel declare war on Iran by Friday? Jun 21 $1,328 +$50 +4%
US military action against Iran by Friday? Jun 21 $1,510 +$55 +4%
Major cyberattack on Iran in June? Jun 21 $200 +$242 +121%
Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? Jun 20 $11,000 −$11,000 -100%
US military action against Iran by Thursday? Jun 20 $185 +$5 +3%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Mar 27 $17,128 −$908 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? BUY Yes $533 1h
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes $58 32d
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes $7 33d
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes $5 33d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes $21 33d
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes $42 33d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes $84 33d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 94¢ $85 33d
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes $63 33d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 54¢ $334 33d
Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 2? BUY Up 97¢ $2,145 108d
Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 2? BUY Up 97¢ $249 108d
Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 2? BUY Up 97¢ $358 108d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? SELL Yes 10¢ $1,969 114d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? BUY Yes $1,422 115d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on February 6? SELL Yes 18¢ $100 132d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on February 6? SELL Yes 16¢ $299 132d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on February 6? SELL Yes 15¢ $272 132d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on February 6? SELL Yes $88 132d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on February 6? SELL Yes $1 132d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on February 6? SELL Yes $3 132d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on February 6? BUY Yes $105 133d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on February 6? BUY Yes $108 133d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on February 5? BUY Yes $41 133d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on February 5? SELL No 96¢ $295 133d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on February 5? BUY No 72¢ $221 133d
Will the price of XRP be less than $1.30 on February 6? SELL Yes 30¢ $930 133d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on February 6? SELL No 21¢ $2 133d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on February 6? SELL No 20¢ $618 133d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on February 6? BUY No $207 135d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $279.67 · official $279.67 (match) · 205 history records