Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:45:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x5192…df62 crypto 992 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 26d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (98 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$5,116 (+26%) realized +$5,118 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate51%504W / 484L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day97.9pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 27d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$1,584
other 4% −$118
sports 3% −$280
world 2% −$32
weather 0% −$34
tech 0% +$23
finance 0% −$32
politics 0% −$20
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (98 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 474 -6.1% -15.0% 51% 46% -19.1%
≤30d 988 -8.0% -16.8% 51% 41% -19.2%
≤90d 988 -8.0% -16.8% 51% 41% -19.2%
all 988 -8.0% -16.8% 51% 41% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover97.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.8% 41% -19.2%
10% ← realistic here -24.8% 34% -26.9%
15% -32.0% 28% -34.0%
20% -38.7% 23% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$15 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$5,118
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses504 / 484
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions4
Markets (closed)988 / 992
History coverage27d ⚠
Avg bet$20
Trades / day97.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 988 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Up 31¢ 28¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-9%)
Will Jonathan White be the Democratic nominee for MD-04? No 63¢ 99¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+58%)
Will Jakeya Johnson be the Democratic nominee for MD-04? No 63¢ 99¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+57%)
Will Lambda's valuation hit (LOW) $5B by December 31? Yes 6¢ 38¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+579%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 20 $1 +$5 +371%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$24 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$33 +106%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 20 $30 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $39 −$32 -82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 20 $32 +$101 +321%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 20 $32 −$31 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 20 $30 +$20 +67%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 20 $30 +$5 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$23 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$81 +257%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 20 $32 −$32 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 19 $30 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$7 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$9 +87%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$9 +89%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$13 +128%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$9 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$10 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$9 +92%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$9 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$11 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$10 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$9 +92%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$17 +166%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $13 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $8 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 35m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $31 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $30 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $7 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $30 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $31 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $3 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $32 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $30 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $30 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $30 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $31 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $6 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.58 · official $23.38 · 3500 history records