Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:59:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
51 0x5195…c25c crypto 490 markets active 1h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$592 (+14%) realized +$595 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate67%327W / 161L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day18.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$170
14 days+$188
30 days+$532
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$530
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 127 +12.0% +1.3% 69% 68% +2.4%
≤30d 488 +11.5% +0.9% 67% 64% -0.4%
≤90d 488 +11.5% +0.9% 67% 64% -0.4%
all 488 +11.5% +0.9% 67% 64% -0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.9% 64% -0.4%
10% -8.8% 59% -9.9%
15% -17.6% 51% -18.6%
20% -25.6% 38% -26.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$9 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized+$595
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses327 / 161
Open positions2
Markets (closed)488 / 490
History coverage26d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day18.9
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 488 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Up 58¢ 50¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Down 57¢ 50¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 161 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$18 +168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$7 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $11 +$34 +322%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$8 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$6 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$12 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$16 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$5 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 18 $11 +$45 +424%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 18 $11 +$30 +290%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $10 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $10 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $11 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $11 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $10 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.39 · official $17.39 (match) · 819 history records