Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:37:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x5196…137c world 108 markets active 1h ago coverage 310d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate35%36W / 68L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$1
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% $0
other 24% $0
politics 20% −$1
sports 11% −$1
crypto 4% +$1
economics 4% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -1.9% -11.2% 0% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 24 -0.8% -10.3% 38% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 69 +1.8% -7.9% 35% 3% -9.5%
all 104 +1.2% -8.5% 35% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 2% -9.5%
10% -17.2% 1% -18.2%
15% -25.2% 1% -26.1%
20% -32.6% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

310d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses36 / 68
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)104 / 108
History coverage310d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 95¢ 94¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-1%)
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $41 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $22 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $28 −$2 -6%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $81 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $127 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $21 −$1 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $41 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $147 +$2 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $40 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $89 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 04 $40 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $167 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 02 $41 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $46 +$1 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $14 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 29 $81 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $49 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $10 $0 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $112 +$1 +1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $1 $0 -5%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 21 $36 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 20 $39 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 19 $36 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 19 $16 −$1 -6%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $39 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $43 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $118 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $80 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $38 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $157 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $44 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $82 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $88 +$1 +1%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $38 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 20 $120 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 19 $38 $0 -1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $82 −$1 -1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $42 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $44 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $39 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $39 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $39 −$1 -2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 15 $39 $0 -0%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 14 $39 $0 -1%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $116 +$1 +1%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $46 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 10 $38 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $37 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $41 5h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $41 5h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $22 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $16 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $33 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $18 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $9 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 16¢ $28 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $40 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $40 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $44 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $44 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $39 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $39 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 37¢ $20 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 39¢ $21 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $41 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $41 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 46¢ $1 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 46¢ $1 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.84 · official $36.70 · 429 history records