Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:10:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x5197…0ce6 politics 86 markets active 7d ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4,611 (-6%) realized −$3,323 · open −$1,288
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate22%17W / 60L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$858per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$275est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$6,732now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$10,255
14 days−$10,255
30 days−$10,147
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$4,435
world 27% +$734
sports 20% −$739
crypto 6% −$1,085
politics 1% −$376
tech 0% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-41.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -74.9% -77.2% 10% 6% -35.4%
≤30d 63 -73.5% -76.0% 11% 8% -34.5%
≤90d 77 -35.8% -41.9% 22% 17% -15.8%
all 77 -35.8% -41.9% 22% 17% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.9% 17% -15.8%
10% -47.5% 12% -23.9%
15% -52.5% 12% -31.3%
20% -57.2% 9% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$1,000) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +23% → late -93% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$597 vs −$246 · ×2.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$6,732
Realized−$3,323
Unrealized−$1,288
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses17 / 60
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$275
Open positions9
Markets (closed)77 / 86
History coverage55d
Avg bet$858
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $1,000 $921 −$79 (-8%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1,000 $867 −$133 (-13%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Yes 39¢ 34¢ $1,000 $860 −$140 (-14%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Yes 22¢ 18¢ $1,000 $841 −$159 (-16%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1,000 $837 −$163 (-16%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1,000 $833 −$166 (-17%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $1,000 $795 −$205 (-20%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Yes 23¢ 18¢ $1,000 $761 −$239 (-24%)
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2026? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,011 +$576 +57%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 10 $1,023 −$1,000 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $3,000 −$36 -1%
Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump say "Japan" or "Korea" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 10 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Trump say "Forbidden City" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 18, 2026? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump say "Farmer" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump say "Tough Negotiator" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump say "Shanghai" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "Tanker" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 10 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 17, 2026? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 25, 2026? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 16, 2026? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 26, 2026? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 22, 2026? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 20, 2026? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump say "Mao" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 10 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 10 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Trump say "Hottest" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 10 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Trump say "North Korea" or "Kim Jong Un" during events with Xi Ji Jun 10 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Trump say "Hong Kong" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 10 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Trump say "Great Wall" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 10 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Trump say "Cookie" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 10 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Trump say "Ship" or "Chip" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 10 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 10 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Trump say "TikTok" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 10 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Trump say "IQ" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 10 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 10 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Trump say "Kamikaze" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 10 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Trump say "Autopen" or "Auto Pen" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 10 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Trump say "Transgender" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 10 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 10 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-03-21? Jun 10 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 10 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2026-05-10? Jun 10 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 10 $702 −$702 -100%
Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2 Jun 10 $585 −$160 -27%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? Jun 10 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 10 $800 −$800 -100%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Jun 10 $105 −$105 -100%
UFC: Strickland and Chimaev to Touch Gloves? Jun 10 $6,096 −$6,096 -100%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Jun 10 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? Jun 10 $105 −$105 -100%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Jun 10 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Jun 10 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Trump meet with MrBeast in 2026? Jun 10 $207 −$12 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 22¢ $1,023 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 39¢ $1,018 6d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $1,023 6d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 11¢ $1,027 6d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $1,024 6d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 11¢ $1,027 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 23¢ $1,023 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $1,011 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 17¢ $1,025 6d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1,030 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 24¢ $2,964 6d
Will Trump meet with MrBeast in 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $195 6d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $16 6d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $4,632 6d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $929 6d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $315 6d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $2,860 6d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1,455 6d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1,132 6d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $485 6d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $801 6d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1,213 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $3,522 6d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $2,170 6d
Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2 SELL No 14¢ $63 23d
Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2 SELL No 14¢ $11 23d
Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2 SELL No 14¢ $56 23d
Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2 SELL No 14¢ $15 23d
Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2 SELL No 14¢ $6 23d
Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2 SELL No 14¢ $273 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,732.02 · official $6,732.02 (match) · 314 history records