Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:20:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x5198…3d9a weather 1071 markets active 1h ago coverage 43d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 42d only
✗ bot/MM pace (80 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$384 (+1%) realized +$386 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%1039W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day80.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$769now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$88
7 days−$60
14 days−$25
30 days−$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$71
other 1% +$50
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (80 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 171 -1.1% -10.5% 98% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 664 -0.4% -9.9% 98% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 1054 +2.0% -7.8% 99% 0% -9.5%
all 1054 +2.0% -7.8% 99% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover80.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.8% 0% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -16.6% 0% -18.2%
15% -24.6% 0% -26.1%
20% -32.0% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$39 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$769
Realized+$386
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses1039 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions20
Markets (closed)1054 / 1071
History coverage43d ⚠
Avg bet$41
Trades / day80.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 1054 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 17? No 97¢ 99¢ $45 $46 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 19? No 98¢ 99¢ $45 $46 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $45 $46 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 19? No 97¢ 98¢ $45 $46 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C or higher on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $46 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 78°F or higher on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 17? No 99¢ 99¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 19? No 99¢ 99¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 19? No 99¢ 99¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? No 99¢ 98¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 19? No 99¢ 98¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? No 99¢ 93¢ $46 $43 −$3 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? No 98¢ 94¢ $45 $43 −$2 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C or below on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or below on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on May 2? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 5? Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 71°F or below on April 28? Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 17? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 18? Jun 17 $22 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $46 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 17 $45 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $45 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $52 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 18? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 17? Jun 16 $45 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 17? Jun 16 $45 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 80°F or higher on June Jun 16 $90 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on June 12? Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $46 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $45 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 17? Jun 16 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $45 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on June Jun 16 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $45 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 94-95°F on June 15? Jun 15 $46 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 88°F or higher on June 16? Jun 15 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 16? Jun 15 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 15 $45 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 16 Jun 15 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $45 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 16? Jun 15 $32 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 15? Jun 15 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 15 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 92°F or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $46 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 15 $45 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 15? Jun 15 $46 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $45 50m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $45 50m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $45 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $45 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $45 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $45 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C or below on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $18 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $27 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $18 3h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $45 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $45 5h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $45 5h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $23 6h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $45 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 78°F or higher on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $45 6h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $46 7h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $21 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $9 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $3 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $4 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $10 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $9 8h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C or higher on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $45 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $45 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $768.54 · official $766.28 (match) · 3500 history records