Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:10:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5

score

51 0x519f…76ab crypto 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$403 (+6%) realized +$403 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +47% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip

Net edge+13%after slip

Net WR62%break-even

Win rate69%11W / 5L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$423per market

Trades / day31.6pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit88%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +62%

net ROI/market (all)+33.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	16	+47.0%	+33.0%	69%	62%	-11.0%
≤30d	16	+47.0%	+33.0%	69%	62%	-11.0%
≤90d	16	+47.0%	+33.0%	69%	62%	-11.0%
all	16	+47.0%	+33.0%	69%	62%	-11.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover31.6 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+33.0%	62%	-11.0%
10% ← realistic here	+20.2%	62%	-19.5%
15%	+8.6%	44%	-27.3%
20%	-2.0%	44%	-34.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 32% · top 2 50% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

9% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +47% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +100% → late -7% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$235 vs −$537 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.96 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$403

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)69%

Wins / losses11 / 5

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions0

Markets (closed)16 / 16

History coverage1d

Avg bet$423

Trades / day31.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 16 Trades

no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Jun 19	$136	−$136	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Jun 19	$77	+$59	+78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Jun 19	$1,042	−$1,000	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Jun 19	$1,041	−$1,000	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Jun 19	$1,025	+$333	+32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Jun 18	$520	−$500	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Jun 18	$521	+$428	+82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Jun 18	$523	+$815	+156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Jun 18	$521	+$465	+89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Jun 18	$504	+$47	+9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Jun 18	$310	+$259	+83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Jun 18	$271	+$63	+23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Jun 18	$203	+$51	+25%
Ghana to score first vs. Panama?	Jun 18	$3	+$4	+124%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama?	Jun 18	$10	+$56	+550%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia?	Jun 17	$51	−$50	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	BUY Down	55¢	$136	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$136	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	BUY Up	54¢	$77	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	BUY Up	43¢	$444	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	BUY Up	35¢	$328	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	BUY Up	38¢	$271	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	BUY Up	42¢	$458	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	BUY Up	40¢	$576	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	BUY Up	44¢	$7	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	SELL Down	88¢	$1,358	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	BUY Down	63¢	$610	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	BUY Down	66¢	$415	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	BUY Down	48¢	$100	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	BUY Down	42¢	$420	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	SELL Up	74¢	$284	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	SELL Up	77¢	$665	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	BUY Up	41¢	$189	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	BUY Up	38¢	$332	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	SELL Down	89¢	$1,339	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	BUY Down	33¢	$375	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	BUY Down	34¢	$149	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	SELL Up	79¢	$782	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	SELL Up	78¢	$204	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	BUY Up	39¢	$383	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	BUY Up	41¢	$138	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	SELL Up	97¢	$551	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	BUY Up	88¢	$504	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	SELL Up	95¢	$569	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$310	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$334	6h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 39 history records