Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:10:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x51a8…610c other 141 markets active 2h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,028 (-1%) realized −$1,026 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate12%17W / 122L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,270per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$1,213now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$15
14 days−$7
30 days+$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$390
politics 35% −$73
sports 14% −$569
culture 2% −$5
world 1% $0
tech 1% −$2
economics 1% −$1
crypto 1% −$29
finance 0% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 32 +5.9% -4.2% 12% 9% -9.4%
≤90d 118 -8.0% -16.8% 9% 6% -10.2%
all 139 -4.4% -13.5% 12% 9% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 9% -10.1%
10% -21.8% 9% -18.7%
15% -29.4% 8% -26.5%
20% -36.3% 7% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,760) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -12% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$14 · ×2.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$1,213
Realized−$1,026
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses17 / 122
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)139 / 141
History coverage120d
Avg bet$1,270
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $817 $817 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $397 $396 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $819 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $1,219 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $1,911 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $5,764 −$6 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,121 −$2 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $1,222 −$2 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $2,093 −$3 -0%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 08 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $2,267 −$3 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 06 $1,098 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,247 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $1,153 −$2 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $3,146 −$3 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $63 +$104 +165%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $3,485 −$4 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $2,048 −$3 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $4,629 −$5 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 02 $448 $0 +0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $613 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $1,680 −$3 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $2,838 −$3 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $1,645 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $1,000 −$2 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $1,004 −$2 -0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $74 +$48 +65%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $57 +$36 +62%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $769 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $875 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $876 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $1,039 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $1,036 −$2 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 19 $404 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 10 $1,028 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $4,115 −$5 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $1,816 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $956 −$1 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 07 $1,190 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 06 $907 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $923 −$1 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $1,045 −$1 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 05 $1,093 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $711 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $2,242 −$3 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $2,400 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 25 $1,140 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $1,040 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $2,753 −$3 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $1,066 −$1 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $1,030 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $2,132 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $817 1h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $817 22h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $818 24h
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $818 25h
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $819 28h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $398 3d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,217 4d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,219 4d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,122 5d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,124 5d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,099 5d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,100 5d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,119 6d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,121 6d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,220 6d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,222 6d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,215 7d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,217 7d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,223 8d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,225 8d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $1,097 8d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $1,098 8d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,245 9d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,247 9d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,151 9d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 51¢ $69 9d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,153 9d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,086 9d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,087 9d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,068 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,212.74 · official $1,212.74 (match) · 491 history records