Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:13:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
51 0x51a9…99b6 other 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 230d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$110 (+1%) realized +$157 · open −$47
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate53%29W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$156per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$869now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$835
7 days+$837
14 days+$990
30 days+$990
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$825
sports 45% −$462
crypto 1% −$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -5.7% -14.7% 52% 52% +12.7%
≤30d 25 +13.1% +2.3% 60% 60% +15.7%
≤90d 52 -6.4% -15.4% 54% 50% +5.2%
all 55 -8.8% -17.5% 53% 49% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 49% -5.2%
10% -25.4% 47% -14.3%
15% -32.6% 38% -22.5%
20% -39.2% 29% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$98 vs −$95 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$869
Realized+$157
Unrealized−$47
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses29 / 26
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions3
Markets (closed)55 / 58
History coverage230d
Avg bet$156
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $648 $633 −$15 (-2%)
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Japan 34¢ 34¢ $150 $148 −$2 (-1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $118 $88 −$29 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $395 +$142 +36%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $343 +$262 +76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $190 +$118 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $386 +$353 +91%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $40 −$39 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $228 +$160 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $165 +$75 +46%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $103 +$14 +14%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $332 +$159 +48%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $202 +$110 +55%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $26 +$71 +276%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $51 −$51 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $128 −$125 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $251 −$250 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $203 +$214 +105%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $20 +$21 +101%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 +$81 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$22 +44%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $20 +$30 +146%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 1 Winner Apr 20 $126 −$126 -100%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 19 $27 +$1 +3%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $300 +$229 +76%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-04-10? Apr 10 $110 −$99 -90%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 April 6-12? Apr 10 $50 −$47 -93%
Lakers vs. Warriors Apr 10 $50 −$49 -98%
Spread: Pacers (-3.5) Apr 10 $50 +$50 +101%
Spread: Warriors (-4.5) Apr 09 $68 −$66 -98%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) Apr 09 $9 +$4 +47%
Game Handicap: KT (-1.5) vs Nongshim Red Force (+1.5) Apr 09 $37 +$30 +82%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 09 $35 +$12 +33%
Thunder vs. Nuggets Apr 09 $50 +$12 +24%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-04-10? Apr 09 $45 −$44 -97%
Will FC Metz win on 2026-04-10? Apr 09 $45 −$44 -97%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-04-10? Apr 09 $60 −$59 -98%
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-04-10? Apr 09 $90 −$89 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $399 +$218 +54%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Apr 08 $90 −$66 -74%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $60 −$34 -58%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 08 $201 +$51 +25%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 08 $64 −$63 -98%
Rockets vs. Suns Apr 08 $50 +$81 +163%
Thunder vs. Lakers Apr 08 $173 +$13 +8%
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 225.5 Apr 08 $133 +$42 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $655 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 34¢ $153 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 73¢ $395 25h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $343 25h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 99¢ $392 26h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 88¢ $347 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $190 38h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $40 38h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $386 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $228 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $126 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $117 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $165 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $231 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 34¢ $51 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 4d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 5d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 33¢ $15 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $26 6d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $26 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $251 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 7d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Hanwha Life Esports 49¢ $20 7d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $869.11 · official $869.11 (match) · 113 history records