Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:42:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x51a9…b229 politics 71 markets active 2h ago coverage 660d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate1%1W / 70L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$231per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 61% −$10
other 26% −$4
economics 12% −$2
sports 1% $0
weather 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 5 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 71 -2.0% -11.3% 1% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 0% -9.6%
10% -19.8% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.8 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

660d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)1%
Wins / losses1 / 70
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)71 / 71
History coverage660d
Avg bet$231
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 71 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 06 $53 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $53 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $53 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $55 $0 +0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 17 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 14 $55 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 06 $109 $0 +0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 05 $55 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 24 $55 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 06 $53 $0 -0%
Will Fulham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 24 $54 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2025 meeting? Jan 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will Roma win the UEFA Europa League? Jan 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will Cole Palmer be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Jan 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Lamar Jackson win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Mircea Geoană win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Jan 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Tyus Jones lead the NBA in Assists? Jan 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Will Levi be Trump's Attorney General? Jan 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will Mike Pompeo be a member of the Trump administration? Jan 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will TJ Watt win NFL Defensive Player of the Year? Jan 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Vikings win the NFC Championship? Jan 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will Binance list $DEGEN in 2024? Jan 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Packers win the NFC Championship? Jan 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Gold close at $2,500-2,600 at the end of 2024? Jan 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Jimmy Carter attend presidential inauguration? Jan 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will 'Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga' gross most in 2024? Jan 26 $4 $0 +0%
Maduro out in 2024? Jan 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will Matthew Whitaker be Trump's Attorney General? Dec 20 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 20 $1 $0 -1%
Will Joe Burrow win NFL Comeback Player of the Year? Dec 20 $0 $0 -2%
Will Ryan Williams win the Heisman Trophy? Dec 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will the November 2024 temperature increase be between 1.25-1.29°C? Dec 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will Cade Cunningham lead the NBA in Assists? Dec 09 $1 $0 -2%
Will Slovan Bratislava win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 09 $0 $0 -0%
Will Clint Capela lead the NBA in Rebounds? Dec 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will Jake Paul fight Conor McGregor next? Dec 09 $1 $0 -3%
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Dec 6-13? Dec 09 $0 $0 -2%
Chris Wright confirmed as Secretary of Energy? Dec 09 $1 $0 -3%
Will Brian Thomas Jr. win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Dec 09 $0 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will 'Elden Ring: Shadow of the Erdtree' win Game of the Year? Dec 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will the 49ers win Super Bowl 2025? Nov 26 $0 $0 -1%
Will the Chicago Blackhawks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Nov 26 $1 $0 -0%
Will Matthew Stafford win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Nov 26 $0 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2024 Las Vegas Grand Prix? Nov 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will the November 2024 temperature increase be between 1.35-1.39°C? Nov 17 $0 $0 -1%
Will Marvin Harrison Jr. win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Nov 17 $1 $0 -1%
Will Trump nominate RFK for FDA Commissioner? Nov 17 $1 $0 -2%
Will Trump say "America" five or more times in his speech after the el Nov 17 $3 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $53 1h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $53 12h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $53 14d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $53 15d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $53 37d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $53 38d
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $53 41d
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 42d
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 42d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $55 70d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $55 70d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $55 95d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 96d
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $55 98d
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $15 98d
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $40 98d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $55 106d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $55 107d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $55 107d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $17 107d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 107d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $55 112d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $55 113d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $55 116d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $55 116d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $53 134d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $53 149d
Will Fulham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $54 208d
Will Fulham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $54 247d
Will Matthew Whitaker be Trump's Attorney General? SELL No 100¢ $1 548d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 168 history records