Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:28:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x51aa…1c27 crypto 583 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$28 (-2%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate41%240W / 339L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day35.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$88
7 days−$88
14 days−$88
30 days−$119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$119
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 127 -19.0% -26.7% 34% 31% -25.3%
≤30d 579 -7.3% -16.1% 41% 34% -15.8%
≤90d 579 -7.3% -16.1% 41% 34% -15.8%
all 579 -7.3% -16.1% 41% 34% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.1% 34% -15.8%
10% ← realistic here -24.1% 33% -23.9%
15% -31.5% 32% -31.2%
20% -38.2% 31% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses240 / 339
Open positions4
Markets (closed)579 / 583
History coverage24d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day35.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 579 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Down 47¢ 94¢ $2 $5 +$2 (+101%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Down 45¢ 76¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+70%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Up 54¢ 52¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Up 55¢ 52¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Down 45¢ 48¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Up 66¢ 24¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 162 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$2 -23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 -7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +79%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +87%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 7m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 58m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.36 · official $25.63 (match) · 1659 history records