Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:44:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x51ad…5e56 sports 730 markets active 0h ago coverage 35d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 34d only
✗ bot/MM pace (84 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$12,440 (-11%) realized −$12,472 · open +$32
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate58%422W / 305L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day83.5pace
Fees−$1,481est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$276now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$308
7 days−$2,888
14 days−$5,536
30 days−$10,547
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$12,652
other 2% −$236
crypto 2% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (84 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 150 -15.7% -23.7% 54% 35% -16.2%
≤30d 591 -12.4% -20.8% 55% 37% -18.9%
≤90d 727 -8.4% -17.1% 58% 39% -19.6%
all 727 -8.4% -17.1% 58% 39% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover83.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.1% 39% -19.6%
10% ← realistic here -25.1% 25% -27.3%
15% -32.3% 16% -34.3%
20% -38.9% 11% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$87 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$276
Realized−$12,472
Unrealized+$32
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses422 / 305
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$1,481
Open positions3
Markets (closed)727 / 730
History coverage35d ⚠
Avg bet$155
Trades / day83.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 727 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Katarina Kuzmova Susan Bandecchi 77¢ 90¢ $140 $165 +$25 (+18%)
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Aryna Sabalenka 95¢ 97¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Felix Auger-Aliassime 51¢ 100¢ $5 $9 +$5 (+97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $1,556 +$94 +6%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Jun 17 $90 −$68 -76%
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Jun 17 $176 +$85 +48%
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann Jun 17 $202 +$142 +70%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 17 $101 +$23 +23%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman Jun 17 $101 +$31 +31%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $252 +$82 +32%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $126 +$63 +50%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $101 +$56 +55%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $291 +$45 +15%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $91 −$3 -3%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $200 +$15 +8%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $251 +$43 +17%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 17 $374 −$262 -70%
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 16 $545 +$291 +53%
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria Jun 16 $904 +$74 +8%
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa Jun 16 $554 −$342 -62%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $102 +$20 +19%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $903 −$115 -13%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $200 +$14 +7%
Royan: Franco Ribero vs Pavel Kotov Jun 16 $201 +$21 +11%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $302 −$70 -23%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $390 +$60 +15%
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka Jun 16 $151 +$19 +12%
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 16 $71 −$60 -85%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 16 $301 +$20 +7%
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Angelina Voloshchuk Jun 16 $401 +$41 +10%
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 16 $402 +$16 +4%
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere Jun 16 $142 −$140 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 16 $401 +$36 +9%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 16 $301 +$25 +8%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $121 +$1 +1%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $127 −$125 -99%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $125 +$7 +6%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $51 −$9 -17%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $201 +$46 +23%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $502 +$79 +16%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $206 +$105 +51%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $200 +$5 +2%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $222 −$200 -90%
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez Jun 15 $141 −$97 -68%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $90 +$10 +11%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 15 $177 −$100 -56%
Royan: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Alejandro Moro Canas Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 15 $154 +$162 +105%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $126 −$79 -62%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $507 +$167 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Katarina Kuzmova BUY Susan Bandecchi 90¢ $10 5m
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Katarina Kuzmova BUY Susan Bandecchi 90¢ $30 5m
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Katarina Kuzmova BUY Susan Bandecchi 90¢ $50 5m
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 95¢ $100 8m
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 71¢ $20 21m
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 33¢ $5 26m
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 63¢ $14 34m
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Katarina Kuzmova BUY Susan Bandecchi 61¢ $51 1h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Hubert Hurkacz $1 1h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Arthur Fery 97¢ $701 1h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Arthur Fery 96¢ $200 1h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Arthur Fery 83¢ $101 1h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery SELL Arthur Fery 65¢ $6 1h
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff SELL Coco Gauff 22¢ $22 1h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery SELL Arthur Fery 77¢ $592 2h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Arthur Fery 71¢ $504 2h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Arthur Fery 67¢ $30 2h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Arthur Fery 57¢ $20 2h
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff BUY Coco Gauff 90¢ $27 2h
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff BUY Coco Gauff 90¢ $27 2h
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff BUY Coco Gauff 90¢ $36 2h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 88¢ $100 3h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 84¢ $20 3h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 51¢ $5 3h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 44¢ $51 3h
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann BUY Jil Teichmann 82¢ $101 3h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Frances Tiafoe 81¢ $101 3h
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann BUY Jil Teichmann 45¢ $102 4h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman BUY Laslo Djere 76¢ $101 4h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 74¢ $202 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $276.45 · official $272.28 · 3500 history records