Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:55:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
51 0x51b1…0a46 sports 373 markets active 2h ago coverage 388d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$214 (+5%) realized +$250 · open −$36
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate47%172W / 194L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$150now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$7
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$252
other 7% −$7
world 3% −$32
politics 2% −$1
economics 1% $0
crypto 1% −$6
tech 0% $0
culture 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +17.6% +6.4% 100% 100% +6.4%
≤30d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 40% 40% -9.8%
≤90d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 40% 40% -9.8%
all 366 -0.8% -10.2% 47% 39% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 39% -4.5%
10% -18.8% 38% -13.7%
15% -26.7% 37% -22.0%
20% -33.9% 36% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$10 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

388d coverage
Net worth$150
Realized+$250
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses172 / 194
Open positions13
Markets (closed)366 / 373
History coverage388d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 366 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 103 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 25 $42 +$7 +18%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 22 $11 −$1 -13%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4 +$9 +194%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Michigan State Spartans vs. Connecticut Huskies Mar 28 $29 +$22 +75%
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-6.5) Mar 28 $32 +$31 +95%
Spread: Iowa State Cyclones (-3.5) Mar 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Iowa State Cyclones Mar 28 $147 −$146 -100%
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Michigan Wolverines Mar 27 $25 −$25 -100%
St. John's Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devils Mar 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-7.5) Mar 27 $29 +$25 +88%
Spread: Houston Cougars (-3.5) Mar 27 $7 +$5 +78%
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougars Mar 27 $53 +$63 +119%
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes Mar 26 $29 −$28 -100%
Lakers vs. Nuggets Mar 06 $29 +$18 +61%
Spread: Nuggets (-4.5) Mar 06 $19 +$19 +104%
Patriots vs. Broncos Jan 26 $73 −$73 -100%
Rams vs. Seahawks Jan 25 $29 −$29 -100%
Spread: Indiana (-7.5) Jan 20 $30 +$27 +92%
Miami vs. Indiana Jan 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Miami vs. Indiana: O/U 47.5 Jan 19 $29 −$29 -100%
Texans vs. Patriots: O/U 41.5 Jan 19 $29 +$32 +108%
Spread: Rams (-3.5) Jan 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Eagles (-4.5) Jan 12 $35 +$39 +112%
Chargers vs. Patriots Jan 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Bills vs. Jaguars Jan 11 $5 +$5 +115%
Texans vs. Steelers Jan 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Chargers vs. Patriots: O/U 46.5 Jan 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Packers vs. Bears: O/U 44.5 Jan 11 $8 +$6 +77%
Rams vs. Panthers Jan 11 $3 +$1 +19%
Rams vs. Panthers: O/U 46.5 Jan 11 $7 +$8 +122%
Spread: Rams (-10.5) Jan 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Patriots (-3.5) Jan 10 $22 −$22 -100%
Packers vs. Bears Jan 10 $114 −$114 -100%
Miami vs. Ole Miss Jan 09 $45 −$45 -100%
Spread: Bengals (-7.5) Jan 05 $5 +$5 +113%
Ravens vs. Steelers Jan 05 $10 +$21 +209%
Chiefs vs. Raiders Jan 05 $13 +$22 +170%
Cardinals vs. Rams Jan 05 $8 +$2 +24%
Spread: Rams (-7.5) Jan 05 $8 +$5 +70%
Spread: Eagles (-4.5) Jan 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Bears (-3.5) Jan 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Dolphins vs. Patriots: O/U 45.5 Jan 04 $14 −$14 -100%
Spread: Ravens (-3.5) Jan 04 $29 −$29 -100%
Spread: Bears (-2.5) Jan 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Falcons (-3.5) Jan 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Lions vs. Bears Jan 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Seahawks (-1.5) Jan 04 $11 +$9 +75%
Seahawks vs. 49ers Jan 04 $58 +$40 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 3d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes $0 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes $0 4d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 98¢ $1 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 8d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $6 9d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 9d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 9d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 61¢ $9 9d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 54¢ $4 9d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 54¢ $6 9d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 54¢ $2 9d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 55¢ $14 9d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 9d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 9d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes $3 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 13¢ $17 10d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 54¢ $4 10d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 55¢ $6 10d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 10d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 10d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 14¢ $1 10d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 18¢ $1 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $149.82 · official $149.83 (match) · 1071 history records