Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:18:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x51b2…59fe world 84 markets active 0h ago coverage 529d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate30%25W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$1
other 28% −$2
politics 16% +$1
sports 14% −$3
tech 2% $0
finance 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
weather 0% −$3
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.5% -10.0% 22% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 21 +0.5% -9.1% 24% 5% -9.6%
≤90d 69 -0.2% -9.7% 26% 1% -9.6%
all 82 -2.3% -11.6% 30% 6% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 6% -9.9%
10% -20.0% 4% -18.5%
15% -27.8% 4% -26.4%
20% -34.9% 4% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

529d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses25 / 57
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)82 / 84
History coverage529d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alberta join the US? No 96¢ 97¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 22¢ 14¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 23 $38 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $12 $0 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $34 $0 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 22 $67 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $12 +$1 +5%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $38 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $73 −$2 -3%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $3 $0 -6%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $33 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $34 +$2 +6%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $4 $0 -7%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $38 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $35 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $34 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $35 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $115 −$1 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $34 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $3 +$1 +20%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 26 $12 $0 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $40 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $36 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $39 $0 +1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 22 $35 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 21 $24 −$3 -13%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 21 $37 +$2 +5%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 19 $12 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 19 $37 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $2 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $37 $0 -0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $2 $0 -4%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $110 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $5 $0 +2%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $36 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $74 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $38 $0 +1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $40 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 21 $103 $0 -0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 20 $73 +$1 +1%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 14 $21 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 14 $40 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $77 $0 -1%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $2 $0 -8%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 12 $73 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $40 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $74 $0 +0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 09 $32 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $38 26m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $38 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 10h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 10h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 10h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 12h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $11 12h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $35 16h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $2 20h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $32 20h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $34 40h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $34 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $11 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $38 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $38 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 58¢ $34 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $33 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $33 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $33 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $11 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $22 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 69¢ $33 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 42¢ $33 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.50 · official $0.00 (match) · 299 history records