Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:09:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

51 0x51b3…3989 sports 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$1,141 (+15%) realized +$1,201 · open −$60

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip

Net edge-27%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%6W / 6L

Drawdown54%max

Avg bet$600per market

Trades / day12.9pace

Fees−$61est.

Kalshi-fit92%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-17.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	12	-8.6%	-17.3%	50%	50%	+5.7%
≤30d	12	-8.6%	-17.3%	50%	50%	+5.7%
≤90d	12	-8.6%	-17.3%	50%	50%	+5.7%
all	12	-8.6%	-17.3%	50%	50%	+5.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover12.9 tr/day

realistic slip~11%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-17.3%	50%	+5.7%
10% ← realistic here	-25.2%	50%	-4.4%
15%	-32.5%	42%	-13.7%
20%	-39.1%	17%	-22.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 27% · top 2 51% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -9% · $-wt +17% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -30% → late +13% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$384 vs −$168 · ×2.28 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.28 per $1 lost it wins $2.28

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$1,201

Unrealized−$60

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses6 / 6

Est. fees paid−$61

Open positions1

Markets (closed)12 / 13

History coverage3d

Avg bet$600

Trades / day12.9

Drawdown54%

Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 12 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner	T1 Academy	24¢	0¢	$60	$0	−$60 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff	Jun 19	$672	−$105	-16%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner	Jun 19	$120	+$140	+116%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner	Jun 19	$51	−$6	-11%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner	Jun 19	$102	−$100	-98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 18	$1,212	+$553	+46%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5	Jun 17	$1,009	+$440	+44%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo	Jun 17	$1,010	+$508	+50%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner	Jun 17	$202	−$200	-99%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner	Jun 17	$61	−$59	-96%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner	Jun 17	$101	+$44	+44%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast	Jun 17	$548	−$541	-99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$2,649	+$622	+24%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff	SELL T1 Academy	100¢	$318	1h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff	BUY T1 Academy	70¢	$111	1h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner	SELL T1 Academy	100¢	$6	1h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff	BUY T1 Academy	62¢	$101	1h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner	SELL T1 Academy	99¢	$254	1h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner	BUY T1 Academy	45¢	$120	2h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner	BUY T1 Academy	26¢	$10	3h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner	BUY T1 Academy	24¢	$51	3h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff	SELL T1 Academy	68¢	$10	3h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff	SELL KT Rolster Challengers	33¢	$102	3h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff	BUY KT Rolster Challengers	67¢	$101	4h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff	BUY T1 Academy	34¢	$5	4h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff	BUY KT Rolster Challengers	60¢	$101	4h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff	SELL T1 Academy	37¢	$137	4h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner	SELL T1 Academy	55¢	$45	4h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner	BUY T1 Academy	61¢	$51	4h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff	BUY T1 Academy	51¢	$51	4h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner	BUY T1 Academy	34¢	$51	4h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner	BUY T1 Academy	63¢	$51	5h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff	BUY T1 Academy	71¢	$101	5h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff	BUY T1 Academy	70¢	$101	6h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	68¢	$1,212	24h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	69¢	$1,009	2d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo	SELL T1 Academy	99¢	$1,518	2d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner	BUY T1 Academy	63¢	$202	2d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner	BUY T1 Academy	10¢	$10	2d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner	SELL T1 Academy	11¢	$1	2d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner	BUY T1 Academy	25¢	$51	2d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner	SELL T1 Academy	100¢	$145	2d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner	BUY T1 Academy	69¢	$101	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.12 · official $0.12 (match) · 40 history records