trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? | Yes | 38¢ | 38¢ | $6 | $6 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by December 31? | No | 40¢ | 42¢ | $4 | $4 | +$0 (+5%) |
| Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 | Under | 59¢ | 57¢ | $3 | $3 | −$0 (-3%) |
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? | Yes | 45¢ | 46¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+2%) |
| Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 37¢ | 36¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Nets vs. Nuggets | Nets | 31¢ | 0¢ | $6 | $0 | −$6 (-100%) |
| India ODI Series: India vs South Africa (Game 2) | India | 70¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-100%) |
| Cowboys vs. Raiders | Raiders | 37¢ | 0¢ | $14 | $0 | −$14 (-100%) |
| Heat vs. Trail Blazers | Heat | 42¢ | 0¢ | $12 | $0 | −$12 (-100%) |
| Mavericks vs. Nuggets | Nuggets | 83¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | Thunder | 55¢ | 0¢ | $33 | $0 | −$33 (-100%) |
| Lakers vs. Clippers | Lakers | 45¢ | 0¢ | $9 | $0 | −$9 (-100%) |
| Lakers vs. Heat | Heat | 55¢ | 0¢ | $50 | $0 | −$50 (-100%) |
| Capitals vs. Flyers | Capitals | 46¢ | 0¢ | $9 | $0 | −$9 (-100%) |
| Rams vs. Bears | Bears | 35¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-100%) |
| Jets vs. Devils | Devils | 54¢ | 0¢ | $25 | $0 | −$25 (-100%) |
| Ethereum Up or Down - November 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET | Up | 27¢ | 0¢ | $4 | $0 | −$4 (-100%) |
| Grizzlies vs. Spurs | Grizzlies | 30¢ | 0¢ | $18 | $0 | −$18 (-100%) |
| Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $7 | $0 | −$7 (-100%) |
| Bucks vs. Hawks | Hawks | 55¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| Golden Knights vs. Islanders | Golden Knights | 57¢ | 0¢ | $11 | $0 | −$11 (-100%) |
| California vs. Hawaii | California | 49¢ | 0¢ | $7 | $0 | −$7 (-100%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET | Down | 30¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-100%) |
| Air Force vs. UConn | Air Force | 27¢ | 0¢ | $14 | $0 | −$14 (-100%) |
| International T20 Series: Sri Lanka vs Pakistan (Game 3) | Pakistan | 58¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by July 31? | Jun 13 | $3 | $0 | -2% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Jun 13 | $4 | $0 | -2% |
| Mavericks vs. Bucks | May 19 | $29 | +$28 | +96% |
| Lakers vs. Heat | Mar 19 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Feb 07 | $2,769 | −$3 | -0% |
| Warriors vs. Lakers | Feb 07 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Feb 06 | $923 | −$1 | -0% |
| Pacers vs. Bucks | Feb 06 | $37 | −$37 | -100% |
| Islanders vs. Devils | Feb 05 | $37 | −$37 | -100% |
| Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Feb 04 | $1,000 | −$1 | -0% |
| Senators vs. Penguins | Feb 04 | $17 | +$18 | +104% |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | Feb 04 | $33 | −$33 | -100% |
| Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Feb 03 | $1,000 | −$1 | -0% |
| Capitals vs. Flyers | Feb 03 | $9 | −$9 | -100% |
| Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Feb 02 | $1,000 | −$1 | -0% |
| Hawks vs. Pacers | Feb 02 | $14 | +$15 | +108% |
| Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Jan 31 | $2,009 | −$2 | -0% |
| Pistons vs. Suns | Jan 31 | $15 | +$21 | +138% |
| Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Jan 30 | $980 | −$1 | -0% |
| Bulls vs. Pacers | Jan 30 | $10 | +$11 | +113% |
| Spurs vs. Rockets | Jan 30 | $17 | +$22 | +127% |
| Nets vs. Nuggets | Jan 30 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jan 29 | $930 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Jan 28 | $1,064 | −$2 | -0% |
| Lakers vs. Cavaliers | Jan 28 | $9 | −$9 | -100% |
| Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jan 27 | $1,960 | −$2 | -0% |
| Jets vs. Devils | Jan 27 | $25 | −$25 | -100% |
| Warriors vs. Timberwolves | Jan 27 | $4 | +$8 | +194% |
| Pelicans vs. Spurs | Jan 27 | $3 | +$14 | +456% |
| Panthers vs. Blackhawks | Jan 27 | $24 | +$20 | +82% |
| Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Jan 26 | $921 | −$1 | -0% |
| Patriots vs. Broncos | Jan 26 | $23 | +$10 | +45% |
| Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Jan 25 | $925 | −$1 | -0% |
| Wizards vs. Hornets | Jan 25 | $17 | +$4 | +24% |
| Knicks vs. 76ers | Jan 25 | $14 | +$14 | +100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | Jan 23 | $2,007 | −$2 | -0% |
| Heat vs. Trail Blazers | Jan 23 | $12 | −$12 | -100% |
| Lakers vs. Clippers | Jan 23 | $9 | −$9 | -100% |
| Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jan 22 | $960 | −$1 | -0% |
| Rams vs. Seahawks | Jan 22 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jan 22 | $2 | −$1 | -50% |
| Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Jan 22 | $2 | −$1 | -50% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? | Jan 22 | $7 | −$2 | -28% |
| Will Valencia win the 2025–26 La Liga? | Jan 22 | $950 | −$1 | -0% |
| Suns vs. 76ers | Jan 22 | $10 | +$10 | +100% |
| Raptors vs. Warriors | Jan 21 | $15 | −$15 | -100% |
| Will PSV win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Jan 21 | $3 | −$1 | -33% |
| Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Jan 21 | $980 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-20? | Jan 21 | $3 | +$7 | +233% |
| Will Club Brugge KV win on 2026-01-20? | Jan 20 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -2.1% | -11.4% | 0% | 0% | -11.4% |
| ≤30d | 3 | +30.7% | +18.2% | 33% | 33% | +60.6% |
| ≤90d | 4 | -2.0% | -11.3% | 25% | 25% | -33.0% |
| all | 177 | -7.8% | -16.6% | 26% | 18% | -10.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -16.6% | 18% | -10.1% |
| 10% | -24.6% | 17% | -18.7% |
| 15% | -31.9% | 13% | -26.5% |
| 20% | -38.6% | 12% | -33.7% |