Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:27:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
51 0x51b6…4783 sports 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,816 (-13%) realized −$1,235 · open −$581
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate36%5W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$879per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$853now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% +$272
world 25% +$133
other 13% −$544
politics 10% −$792
economics 8% −$839
finance 0% −$42
culture 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-39.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.5% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 3 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 11 -25.7% -32.8% 36% 0% -12.5%
all 14 -33.4% -39.7% 36% 0% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.7% 0% -18.4%
10% -45.5% 0% -26.2%
15% -50.8% 0% -33.4%
20% -55.6% 0% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -68% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.9 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$275 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$853
Realized−$1,235
Unrealized−$581
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses5 / 9
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage153d
Avg bet$879
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $625 $625 +$0 (+0%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 71¢ 20¢ $809 $228 −$581 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $626 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $630 −$6 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 24 $630 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $2,535 +$87 +3%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? May 16 $255 +$5 +2%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 16 $2,216 +$65 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Apr 18 $1,332 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $1,217 +$115 +9%
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by March 31? Apr 11 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Chloé Zhao win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? Apr 11 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $15 mi Apr 11 $538 −$538 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Mar 22 $276 −$258 -93%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Feb 03 $792 −$792 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 31? Feb 02 $1,528 +$133 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $853.38 · official $853.38 (match) · 68 history records