Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:17:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x51b8…6d8c other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$483per market
Trades / day14.2pace
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$42
7 days−$48
14 days−$48
30 days−$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$48
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +7.8% -2.5% 50% 25% -13.0%
≤30d 4 +7.8% -2.5% 50% 25% -13.0%
≤90d 4 +7.8% -2.5% 50% 25% -13.0%
all 4 +7.8% -2.5% 50% 25% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.5% 25% -13.0%
10% -11.8% 25% -21.3%
15% -20.3% 25% -28.9%
20% -28.1% 0% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
13.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$24 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage9d
Avg bet$483
Trades / day14.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $1,150 −$42 -4%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $88 −$7 -7%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1 $0 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $37 41m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $37 45m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $38 46m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $38 47m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $38 47m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $39 48m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $39 48m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $40 49m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $40 49m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $41 49m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $41 49m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $42 50m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $42 50m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $42 52m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $43 52m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $43 53m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $44 53m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $44 53m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $45 54m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $36 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $36 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $36 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $37 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $37 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $38 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $38 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $39 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $39 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $39 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $40 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.82 · official $36.82 (match) · 125 history records