Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:37:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x51ba…0bf5 other 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 477d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate41%12W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$4
other 27% −$3
politics 9% $0
crypto 5% $0
sports 3% $0
culture 2% $0
tech 2% $0
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.5% -9.1% 40% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 8 +1.7% -8.0% 50% 0% -8.1%
≤90d 8 +1.7% -8.0% 50% 0% -8.1%
all 29 -4.4% -13.5% 41% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -21.8% 0% -18.3%
15% -29.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -36.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

477d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses12 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage477d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? No 88¢ 88¢ $40 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $47 −$1 -2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $41 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $16 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $7 $0 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $15 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 27 $42 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $38 +$4 +10%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $37 $0 +1%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 22 $11 $0 -2%
Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 25 $10 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? Jun 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 67–68°F on May 14? May 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 13 $12 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1900 on May 16? May 12 $2 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 11 $1 $0 -18%
Will San Marino finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 11 $3 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? May 11 $1 $0 -14%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 11 $23 $0 -1%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? May 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec May 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1900 and $2000 on May 9? May 09 $12 $0 +1%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 08 $18 −$2 -14%
Will Crystal Palace be relegated? Mar 31 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Mar 31 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Mar 30 $17 $0 -0%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Mar 25 $17 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. remove HTS from terror list before March? Mar 21 $17 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 88¢ $40 2h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 7¢ $2 5h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 7¢ $3 5h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 8¢ $6 8h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $2 11h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $40 11h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $41 16h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $41 19h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $41 23h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $16 24h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $16 26h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $8 31h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $7 35h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $15 43h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $15 44h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $15 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $27 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $26 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $15 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $4 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $38 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $38 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $14 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $23 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 95¢ $37 26d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 87¢ $1 179d
Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $2 359d
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? SELL No 96¢ $11 359d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 386d
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? BUY No 95¢ $10 401d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.38 · official $39.38 (match) · 96 history records