Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:04:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
51 0x51ba…bc23 crypto 10 markets active 9h ago coverage 127d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$5,690 (-18%) realized −$4,217 · open −$1,473
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,214per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$21,301now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 127d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$1,473
crypto 19% −$1,488
sports 8% −$2,729
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-49.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 8 -43.6% -49.0% 0% 0% -53.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -49.0% 0% -53.3%
10% -53.9% 0% -57.8%
15% -58.3% 0% -61.9%
20% -62.4% 0% -65.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt -48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$527 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$21,301
Realized−$4,217
Unrealized−$1,473
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage127d
Avg bet$3,214
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $13,083 $11,774 −$1,308 (-10%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $9,692 $9,526 −$165 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Feb 19 $1,000 −$208 -21%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Feb 19 $1,000 −$129 -13%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Feb 19 $1,000 −$30 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? Feb 19 $981 −$117 -12%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? Feb 19 $1,000 −$503 -50%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? Feb 19 $1,000 −$501 -50%
Bucks vs. Thunder: O/U 215.5 Feb 12 $2,220 −$2,220 -100%
Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5) Feb 11 $509 −$509 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $63 9h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $9,958 9h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $93 9h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $13,313 9h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? SELL Yes 8¢ $792 118d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? SELL Yes 24¢ $871 118d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? SELL Yes 4¢ $970 118d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? SELL Yes 2¢ $864 118d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? SELL Yes 14¢ $497 118d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? SELL Yes 5¢ $499 118d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? BUY Yes 2¢ $981 120d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? BUY Yes 9¢ $1,000 120d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? BUY Yes 4¢ $1,000 120d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? BUY Yes 10¢ $1,000 120d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? BUY Yes 29¢ $1,000 120d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? BUY Yes 27¢ $1,000 120d
Bucks vs. Thunder: O/U 215.5 BUY Over 55¢ $2,220 126d
Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5) BUY Trail Blazers 57¢ $509 126d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21,300.60 · official $21,300.60 (match) · 18 history records