Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:06:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

51
0x51bb…4231
other · 12 markets active 1h ago
2.0score
+$6 +11%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$5 · open +$70
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$97
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$70
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)7 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%
Chart Positions 5 History 7 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 18¢ 100¢ $10 $56 +$46 (+455%)
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? Yes 15¢ 100¢ $4 $27 +$23 (+580%)
Australia to score first vs. Türkiye? Yes 34¢ 100¢ $3 $9 +$6 (+194%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 1 Türkiye? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals Yes 16¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Raphinha: 1+ goals Yes 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Morocco to score first vs. Brazil? Jun 14 $5 +$11 +216%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 14 $4 +$7 +172%
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals Jun 13 $2 +$2 +90%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $9 −$8 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Raphinha: 1+ goals Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 75% +$58
sports 15% +$17
crypto 9% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 49m
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 1 Türkiye? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 1h
Australia to score first vs. Türkiye? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 17h
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 52¢ $2 17h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 18h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 36¢ $4 26h
Raphinha: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $1 26h
Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 16¢ $2 26h
Morocco to score first vs. Brazil? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 26h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +11.2% +0.6% 43% 43% +9.8%
≤30d 7 +11.2% +0.6% 43% 43% +9.8%
≤90d 7 +11.2% +0.6% 43% 43% +9.8%
all 7 +11.2% +0.6% 43% 43% +9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.6% 43% +9.8%
10% -9.0% 43% -0.7%
15% -17.8% 43% -10.3%
20% -25.9% 43% -19.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.51 · official $96.51 (match) · 16 history records