Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:17:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
51 0x51bd…2871 other 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,043 (-12%) realized −$1,043 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +34% what you keep after slip
Net edge+34%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%14W / 25L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$190per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$70est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 76d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$1,801
sports 43% +$4,751
crypto 5% −$340
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+34.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +265.3% +230.5% 45% 45% +183.6%
≤30d 22 +119.9% +99.0% 41% 41% +94.4%
≤90d 39 +48.3% +34.1% 36% 36% +65.7%
all 39 +48.3% +34.1% 36% 36% +65.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +34.1% 36% +65.7%
10% +21.3% 36% +49.9%
15% +9.6% 36% +35.4%
20% -1.2% 36% +22.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +83% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +48% · $-wt +83% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -50% → late +142% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$702 vs −$144 · ×4.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.72 per $1 lost it wins $2.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,043
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses14 / 25
Est. fees paid−$70
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 45
History coverage76d
Avg bet$190
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions (24 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1,529 +$2,124 +139%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $175 −$171 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $228 −$222 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? AND Will Belgium vs. Egyp Jun 16 $206 +$3,255 +1583%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win o Jun 15 $195 +$2,062 +1059%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $62 +$338 +550%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $344 −$338 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $304 −$300 -99%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -97%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 13 $240 +$452 +188%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $27 −$26 -97%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $237 +$293 +124%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $254 −$250 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 11 $298 +$193 +65%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Legacy (-3.5) vs TYLOO (+3.5) Jun 09 $99 −$97 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $99 −$96 -97%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $164 −$161 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $255 +$404 +158%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 07 $148 +$108 +73%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 06 $201 −$198 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $509 −$500 -98%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 27 $196 −$192 -98%
Getafe CF vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 2.5 Apr 25 $300 −$295 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Apr 24 $200 −$191 -96%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 19 $200 +$159 +79%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Hao-Tong Li win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) Apr 12 $200 +$172 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Apr 11 $81 −$81 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Apr 11 $43 +$38 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Apr 11 $100 −$96 -96%
Real Madrid CF vs. Girona FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 10 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Apr 09 $10 −$9 -94%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04? Apr 08 $100 +$114 +114%
FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 3.5 Apr 08 $100 −$98 -98%
Exact Score: FC Barcelona 2 - 3 Club Atlético de Madrid? Apr 08 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: FC Barcelona 3 - 2 Club Atlético de Madrid? Apr 08 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $148 +$111 +75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 91¢ $681 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 88¢ $1,973 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 86¢ $999 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 19¢ $175 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 36¢ $1,529 2h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? AND Will England vs. Croatia BUY 6¢ $305 39h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $100 47h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $128 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Argentina win on 2026- BUY 2¢ $110 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-1 BUY 7¢ $103 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-1 BUY 7¢ $103 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? AND Will Belgium vs. Egyp BUY 6¢ $206 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win o BUY 8¢ $195 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14 BUY 8¢ $206 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $93 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $304 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 51¢ $251 5d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 5d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 15¢ $62 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 10¢ $27 6d
United States leading at halftime? BUY Yes 34¢ $240 6d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States BUY 12¢ $41 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY 24¢ $153 7d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 44¢ $237 7d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY TheMongolz 53¢ $254 7d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 60¢ $298 9d
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Legacy (-3.5) vs TYLOO (+3.5) BUY TYLOO 49¢ $99 9d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY TYLOO 12¢ $99 9d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY TYLOO 26¢ $164 10d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY TYLOO 38¢ $255 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 65 history records