Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:06:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
51 0x51bd…72a9 crypto 105 markets active 6d ago coverage 253d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$20 (-0%) realized −$19 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate89%82W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$156per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$120now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$12
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 61% −$9
sports 31% +$11
crypto 4% +$12
other 3% −$25
tech 0% $0
economics 0% +$1
culture 0% −$4
finance 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 11 -8.6% -17.3% 82% 0% -15.3%
≤90d 34 +0.1% -9.5% 94% 3% -7.2%
all 92 -3.0% -12.3% 89% 9% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 9% -9.6%
10% -20.7% 3% -18.3%
15% -28.3% 2% -26.2%
20% -35.4% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$7 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

253d coverage
Net worth$120
Realized−$19
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses82 / 10
Open positions13
Markets (closed)92 / 105
History coverage253d
Avg bet$156
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+0%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? No 100¢ 100¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 92¢ 78¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 92¢ 93¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30? No 76¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Solana dip to $10 in May? Jun 06 $23 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in May? Jun 06 $23 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 May 25-31? Jun 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on May 27? Jun 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on May 28? Jun 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 06 $12 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 06 $13 +$1 +4%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 06 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in May? Jun 06 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 23? May 27 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 21? May 27 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 22? May 27 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 15? May 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 14? May 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 May 11-17? May 20 $25 +$23 +93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on April 15? May 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 16? May 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? May 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in April? May 06 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? May 06 $14 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $10 in April? May 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 15? May 06 $16 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90%? Apr 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 3? Apr 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 14 $14 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $10 in March? Apr 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? Apr 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Apr 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 31? Apr 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 31? Apr 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 30? Mar 31 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 30? Mar 31 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 March 23-29? Mar 31 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? Mar 29 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026? Mar 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 29 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 29 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 29 $16 $0 +0%
Will Train Dreams win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 9? Mar 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,600 on March 9? Mar 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on March 9? Mar 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 9? Mar 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026? Mar 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 4? Mar 09 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $15 5d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $12 5d
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last tra BUY No 100¢ $12 5d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $19 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $20 5d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $12 13d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $12 13d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $12 13d
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? SELL No 100¢ $12 13d
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market BUY No 100¢ $20 23d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 23d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in June? BUY No 100¢ $16 23d
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? BUY No 100¢ $24 23d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $24 23d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $22 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $11 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $10 33d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 May 25-31? BUY No 100¢ $10 33d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $13 33d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY No 100¢ $12 40d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 40d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $12 40d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $17 40d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 21? BUY No 100¢ $14 40d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 46d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 14? BUY No 100¢ $12 46d
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 May 11-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $25 46d
Will Solana dip to $10 in May? SELL No 100¢ $20 46d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in May? SELL No 100¢ $19 46d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $9 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $120.30 · official $119.59 (match) · 284 history records