Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T12:10:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
51 0x51be…12c2 sports 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$360 (+6%) realized +$846 · open −$486
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%7W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$376per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$51est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$513now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$601
7 days+$602
14 days+$332
30 days+$332
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$155
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-29.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -9.8% -18.4% 62% 62% +3.9%
≤30d 13 -21.8% -29.2% 54% 54% -3.0%
≤90d 13 -21.8% -29.2% 54% 54% -3.0%
all 13 -21.8% -29.2% 54% 54% -3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.2% 54% -3.0%
10% -36.0% 46% -12.3%
15% -42.2% 31% -20.8%
20% -47.8% 23% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -51% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$196 vs −$174 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$513
Realized+$846
Unrealized−$486
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses7 / 6
Est. fees paid−$51
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 15
History coverage12d
Avg bet$376
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner L1ga Team 65¢ 100¢ $333 $512 +$179 (+54%)
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner L1ga Team 64¢ 0¢ $666 $1 −$665 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $1,339 +$258 +19%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $996 +$343 +34%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $336 −$333 -99%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $336 −$333 -99%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $337 +$184 +55%
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout Jun 22 $148 +$52 +35%
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $562 +$441 +78%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $101 +$54 +54%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou Jun 16 $203 −$200 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $67 −$66 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $101 +$42 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY L1ga Team 65¢ $336 36m
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY L1ga Team 66¢ $336 1h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY L1ga Team 62¢ $337 1h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner SELL MOUZ 100¢ $2 2h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner SELL MOUZ 100¢ $1,595 2h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 86¢ $558 2h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 82¢ $781 2h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner SELL MOUZ 100¢ $0 3h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner SELL MOUZ 100¢ $13 3h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner SELL MOUZ 100¢ $1,325 3h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 80¢ $771 3h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 59¢ $225 3h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 68¢ $336 2d
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 65¢ $336 2d
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner SELL GLYPH 100¢ $0 2d
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner SELL GLYPH 100¢ $15 2d
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner SELL GLYPH 100¢ $505 2d
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout SELL Execration 100¢ $201 2d
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner BUY GLYPH 64¢ $337 2d
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner SELL Mentality Monster 100¢ $1,003 2d
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout BUY Execration 74¢ $56 2d
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout BUY Execration 73¢ $92 2d
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY Mentality Monster 50¢ $225 2d
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY Mentality Monster 60¢ $337 2d
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Flame Team 33¢ $10 4d
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Spirit Academy 64¢ $101 7d
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou BUY 4ikibamboni 38¢ $102 7d
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou BUY 4ikibamboni 61¢ $101 7d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 67¢ $101 7d
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 47¢ $67 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $512.57 · official $512.57 (match) · 33 history records