Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:48:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
51 0x51c1…599b other 113 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$81 (-0%) realized −$81 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate10%11W / 102L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$157per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$8
politics 40% −$9
sports 10% −$67
crypto 5% $0
economics 3% −$1
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 98 -2.6% -11.9% 6% 5% -9.8%
all 113 -4.0% -13.1% 10% 7% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 7% -10.0%
10% -21.4% 4% -18.6%
15% -29.0% 4% -26.4%
20% -36.0% 3% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$2 · ×5.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses11 / 102
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)113 / 113
History coverage116d
Avg bet$157
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 113 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 21 $28 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 12 $30 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $139 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $25 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 07 $24 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $25 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $152 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $388 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 23 $168 $0 +0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $130 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $139 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 19 $291 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $29 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $473 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $287 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $169 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $318 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $176 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $314 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $340 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $144 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $137 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $156 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 11 $149 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $154 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $29 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $158 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $117 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $144 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 04 $159 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $297 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $161 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $153 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $130 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $187 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $129 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 28 $276 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 21 $280 $0 -0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 20 $30 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $290 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $257 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $118 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $146 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $397 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 16 $149 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $145 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $273 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $152 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $113 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $134 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $28 1h
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 21h
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $30 8d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $30 9d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $24 12d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $24 12d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $25 12d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $25 13d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $24 13d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $24 14d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $25 15d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $25 21d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $152 21d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $152 27d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $129 27d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $129 28d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $168 28d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $168 29d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $130 29d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $130 30d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $139 30d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $139 32d
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $157 32d
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $157 33d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $29 33d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $29 33d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $164 33d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $164 34d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $150 34d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $150 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 331 history records