Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:29:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x51c1…a853 crypto 347 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (141 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$51 (-5%) realized −$41 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate39%135W / 208L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day141.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days−$109
14 days−$111
30 days−$111
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$132
other 11% +$7
sports 4% $0
world 1% −$4
weather 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (141 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-32.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 288 -29.9% -36.6% 37% 33% -23.3%
≤30d 343 -25.6% -32.7% 39% 35% -22.1%
≤90d 343 -25.6% -32.7% 39% 35% -22.1%
all 343 -25.6% -32.7% 39% 35% -22.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover141.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -32.7% 35% -22.1%
10% ← realistic here -39.1% 27% -29.6%
15% -45.0% 23% -36.4%
20% -50.4% 18% -42.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$41
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses135 / 208
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)343 / 347
History coverage8d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day141.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 343 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 76¢ 54¢ $31 $22 −$9 (-30%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 177 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 +$8 +42%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $5 +$2 +46%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? Jun 23 $1 +$9 +894%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 23 $2 $0 -14%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $14 +$7 +52%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 23 $2 +$1 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$1 -49%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +27%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$1 -33%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 23 $2 +$2 +118%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$1 -41%
Norway vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 22 $4 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 22 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 22 $4 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 22 $6 +$2 +33%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 -9%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 22 $2 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 22 $4 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 22 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 22 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 22 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 22 $7 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$1 -32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 22 $2 +$2 +76%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 22 $2 +$1 +36%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 +$2 +48%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 22 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 22 $8 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 22 $3 $0 -5%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $2 +$2 +76%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 21 $2 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$2 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$1 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $7 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $31 1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 8.5 Total Corners AND Endrick: 1+ goals AND S BUY 10¢ $2 3h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 25h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $1 35h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $0 35h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 35h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 35h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $14 45h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $1 45h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 45h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 45h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 45h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $1 45h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 45h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $1 46h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 46h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $0 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 46h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 46h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 46h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $1 46h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.91 · official $30.91 · 1192 history records