Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:40:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x51c7…e937 crypto 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 218d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate57%20W / 15L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$471per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$138now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$5
politics 27% −$5
sports 22% −$5
culture 9% −$2
crypto 5% +$2
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 2 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 8 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 35 -5.5% -14.5% 57% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -22.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -30.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -37.0% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,019) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

218d coverage
Net worth$138
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses20 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)35 / 38
History coverage218d
Avg bet$471
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $59 $59 −$0 (-0%)
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Will BNB reach $1,100 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Solana dip to $30 in May? Jun 19 $36 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 19 $101 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? May 12 $39 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 April 20-26? May 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $10 in April? May 12 $57 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 24 $57 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 24 $79 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 30 $57 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Mar 04 $1 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026? Mar 04 $5 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 20? Mar 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 February 16-22? Mar 04 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 04 $93 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026? Feb 20 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 20 $40 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Feb 20 $44 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 Feb 20 $51 $0 +0%
CSA T20 Series: North West vs Titans (Game 1) Jan 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 27 $136 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Dec 18 $36 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? Dec 18 $99 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 17 $498 −$1 -0%
Will Captain America: Brave New World be the top grossing movie of 202 Nov 17 $1,651 −$2 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 17 $1,653 −$2 -0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 16 $2,153 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 15 $128 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 15 $2,027 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 15 $2,157 −$2 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 15 $462 $0 -0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 15 $1,698 −$2 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 14 $1,327 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 14 $837 −$1 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 14 $1,019 −$1 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 14 $1,147 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? BUY No 100¢ $45 1h
Will BNB reach $1,100 in June? BUY No 100¢ $34 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $59 1h
Will Solana dip to $30 in May? BUY No 100¢ $36 37d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $101 37d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $39 56d
Will XRP reach $2.00 April 20-26? BUY No 100¢ $40 56d
Will Solana dip to $10 in April? BUY No 100¢ $57 56d
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 80d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 106d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $79 106d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 February 16-22? BUY No 100¢ $27 118d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $93 118d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 20? BUY No 100¢ $10 118d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $5 118d
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1 118d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $1 118d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $51 143d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2 143d
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $44 143d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $40 143d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $136 182d
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $99 213d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $36 213d
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 100¢ $498 213d
Will Captain America: Brave New World be the top grossing movie of 202 SELL No 100¢ $1,650 213d
Will Captain America: Brave New World be the top grossing movie of 202 BUY No 100¢ $1,651 214d
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,651 214d
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 100¢ $498 215d
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,653 215d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $137.66 · official $137.66 (match) · 74 history records