Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T03:03:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
51 0x51c7…98aa sports 615 markets active 2h ago coverage 291d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$18,106 (+2%) realized +$18,108 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate65%395W / 216L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,538per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$4,019est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$318now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$555
7 days+$2,231
14 days+$422
30 days+$19,105
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$26,506
other 3% −$10,971
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -31.9% -38.4% 54% 54% -2.8%
≤30d 95 +14.7% +3.7% 69% 68% -0.2%
≤90d 280 +4.8% -5.1% 65% 63% -4.2%
all 611 +1.2% -8.5% 65% 63% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 63% -7.6%
10% -17.2% 54% -16.5%
15% -25.2% 44% -24.5%
20% -32.6% 30% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$2,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$706 vs −$1,219 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

291d coverage
Net worth$318
Realized+$18,108
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses395 / 216
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$4,019
Open positions4
Markets (closed)611 / 615
History coverage291d
Avg bet$1,538
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 611 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $80 $78 −$2 (-2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 210 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 28 $2,471 +$932 +38%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur Jun 28 $2,002 +$503 +25%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Jun 28 $1,004 −$993 -99%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 27 $1,005 −$998 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $87 −$85 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $7,048 +$2,043 +29%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Jun 26 $356 −$350 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $335 −$330 -99%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 25 $5,015 +$542 +11%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 25 $2,329 +$879 +38%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,007 +$309 +31%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 23 $6,247 +$869 +14%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1,094 −$1,089 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $4,635 +$2,998 +65%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $505 +$264 +52%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $504 −$500 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $710 −$700 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $218 +$517 +238%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $2,238 +$3,000 +134%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2,025 +$1,423 +70%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $3,844 +$2,385 +62%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $4,433 +$1,434 +32%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $4,036 −$4,000 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $5,833 +$1,988 +34%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $380 −$375 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $2,739 +$2,088 +76%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,025 +$1,423 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,014 −$2,000 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10,024 −$10,024 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $1,017 +$1,269 +125%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $2,022 −$2,000 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1,011 −$1,000 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $507 +$454 +90%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,012 +$628 +62%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $2,025 −$2,000 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $448 +$741 +165%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $2,011 +$428 +21%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1,214 +$722 +60%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $709 −$700 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2,014 +$617 +31%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $2,014 +$598 +30%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $613 +$220 +36%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,158 +$1,267 +109%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $4,016 +$582 +14%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1,009 +$440 +44%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $1,010 +$509 +50%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $505 −$500 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1,014 −$1,000 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $102 +$110 +108%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $2,022 +$1,103 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $41 2h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $82 2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 2h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 72¢ $2,471 8h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur BUY Nigma Galaxy 79¢ $2,002 11h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY Virtus.pro 63¢ $1,004 18h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Natus Vincere 77¢ $1,005 44h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 18¢ $87 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 77¢ $3,524 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 77¢ $3,524 2d
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY MOUZ 42¢ $356 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $233 3d
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY TEAM VISION 90¢ $5,015 3d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Team Spirit 72¢ $2,329 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $1,007 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $1,094 5d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY Team Spirit 88¢ $1,004 5d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY Team Spirit 87¢ $5,244 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $504 7d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 53¢ $710 7d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 65¢ $505 7d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $455 7d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $4,180 7d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 29¢ $218 8d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 58¢ $2,025 8d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $2,238 8d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 61¢ $3,844 8d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 70¢ $4,036 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $317.58 · official $317.58 (match) · 1297 history records