Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:57:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

51 0x51c8…7ff7 sports 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$16 (-2%) realized −$16 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip

Net edge-14%after slip

Net WR45%break-even

Win rate70%14W / 6L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$39per market

Trades / day4.6pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$30

7 days−$8

14 days−$8

30 days−$8

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +45%

net ROI/market (all)-10.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	20	-1.2%	-10.6%	70%	45%	-10.4%
≤30d	20	-1.2%	-10.6%	70%	45%	-10.4%
≤90d	20	-1.2%	-10.6%	70%	45%	-10.4%
all	20	-1.2%	-10.6%	70%	45%	-10.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.6 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-10.6%	45%	-10.4%
10%	-19.2%	35%	-19.0%
15%	-27.0%	20%	-26.8%
20%	-34.1%	5%	-34.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 31% · top 2 49% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

36% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +19% → late -21% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$9 vs −$23 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.94 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$16

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)70%

Wins / losses14 / 6

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions0

Markets (closed)20 / 20

History coverage8d

Avg bet$39

Trades / day4.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 20 Trades

no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$55	+$5	+8%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$47	+$9	+19%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$16	+$1	+4%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$37	+$9	+24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$32	+$6	+18%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5	Jun 16	$30	+$1	+5%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 15	$2	−$1	-99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	Jun 15	$2	$0	+7%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$26	−$6	-24%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$129	−$123	-95%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$125	+$4	+3%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 2.5	Jun 13	$86	+$40	+47%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5	Jun 13	$63	+$23	+36%
United States to score first vs. Paraguay?	Jun 13	$7	+$5	+74%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5	Jun 13	$39	+$11	+28%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5	Jun 12	$38	+$9	+23%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	Jun 12	$5	$0	-7%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$10	−$6	-56%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$17	+$7	+42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 11	$18	−$1	-3%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5	SELL Under	100¢	$60	4m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5	BUY Under	92¢	$55	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	91¢	$56	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$47	11h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	89¢	$17	13h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	85¢	$16	14h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	80¢	$37	21h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$37	21h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	84¢	$32	22h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5	SELL Over	100¢	$32	22h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5	BUY Over	95¢	$30	26h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	57¢	$2	2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	SELL Over	54¢	$2	2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	49¢	$2	2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	59¢	$6	3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	4¢	$6	3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	81¢	$129	4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	SELL Yes	100¢	$129	4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	97¢	$125	4d
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 2.5	SELL Over	99¢	$126	4d
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 2.5	BUY Over	67¢	$86	4d
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5	SELL Over	99¢	$86	4d
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5	BUY Over	72¢	$63	4d
United States to score first vs. Paraguay?	SELL Yes	99¢	$12	4d
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5	SELL Over	99¢	$50	4d
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5	BUY Over	77¢	$39	4d
United States to score first vs. Paraguay?	BUY Yes	56¢	$7	4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	81¢	$38	4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	SELL Yes	31¢	$5	4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	58¢	$19	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 41 history records