Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:44:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
51 0x51c9…8825 world 194 markets active 2h ago coverage 203d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$173 (+2%) realized +$177 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate52%100W / 93L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$289
7 days+$378
14 days+$374
30 days+$393
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% −$144
other 25% +$511
sports 18% −$55
finance 13% +$77
politics 6% −$32
crypto 3% −$20
economics 2% +$2
tech 1% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -2.7% -12.0% 46% 38% +23.1%
≤30d 21 -0.6% -10.1% 52% 38% +15.4%
≤90d 150 -8.3% -17.1% 49% 32% -8.6%
all 193 -0.6% -10.1% 52% 37% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 37% -4.9%
10% -18.7% 27% -14.0%
15% -26.6% 21% -22.3%
20% -33.8% 15% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$13 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

203d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$177
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses100 / 93
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)193 / 194
History coverage203d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 193 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 39¢ 12¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $511 +$278 +54%
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? Jun 19 $61 +$23 +37%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 19 $10 −$6 -59%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 19 $31 −$16 -51%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $20 +$2 +10%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $100 −$66 -66%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 19 $51 −$2 -3%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $15 +$15 +95%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 19 $102 +$62 +60%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $41 −$27 -66%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $134 +$116 +87%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 14 $10 $0 -0%
Trump out as President before GTA VI? Jun 10 $52 −$4 -7%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) May 30 $31 −$13 -42%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 30 $71 +$3 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $126 +$15 +12%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets May 30 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $185B by June 30? May 28 $26 +$11 +44%
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $190B by December 31? May 23 $26 −$1 -5%
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $160B by June 30? May 21 $25 +$3 +13%
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $165B by June 30? May 20 $26 +$2 +7%
Will Amy McGrath be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky? May 19 $26 −$25 -96%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 18 $151 −$2 -2%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? May 18 $25 +$8 +31%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of May 11 2026? May 16 $25 +$1 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 Week of May 11 2026? May 16 $76 +$10 +13%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $51 +$20 +40%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $127 −$125 -98%
Will Trump say "Cookie" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $25 $0 +2%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 15 $25 $0 +2%
Will Trump say "Hottest" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $25 +$4 +16%
Will Trump say "Forbidden City" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $25 $0 -2%
Will Trump say "Tough Negotiator" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $25 +$1 +3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 14 $76 −$3 -4%
Will Trump say "Silk Road" during Chinese State Banquet? May 14 $25 +$3 +14%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of May 14 $50 −$3 -6%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 13 $25 −$1 -4%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? May 13 $50 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 13 $50 +$8 +15%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 11 $25 $0 -0%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? May 11 $25 −$1 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 11 $25 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 11 $25 +$3 +13%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 09 $25 +$27 +106%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on May 8? May 09 $26 +$24 +94%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 08 $41 −$40 -98%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 08 $5 +$1 +11%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 08 $101 +$8 +8%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 06 $26 −$13 -49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $789 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $511 3h
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? SELL Yes 18¢ $83 3h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 28¢ $4 3h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes $10 3h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $22 3h
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $34 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $21 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 46¢ $13 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 71¢ $20 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $15 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 61¢ $102 3d
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic BUY Arthur Rinderknech 55¢ $1 3d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $5 3d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 78¢ $172 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 66¢ $78 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 34¢ $31 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 39¢ $103 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 7d
Trump out as President before GTA VI? SELL No 49¢ $48 9d
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) SELL Miami Marlins 12¢ $8 20d
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) BUY Miami Marlins 29¢ $21 20d
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) SELL Miami Marlins 17¢ $10 20d
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $74 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $59 20d
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets SELL New York Mets 86¢ $31 20d
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) BUY Miami Marlins 16¢ $10 20d
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 81¢ $30 20d
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $185B by June 30? SELL No 73¢ $37 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.47 · official $1.47 (match) · 562 history records