Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:50:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

51
0x51ce…43fa
crypto · 683 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$5,423 -20%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$5,634 · open +$211
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$595
Realized−$5,634
Unrealized+$211
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses182 / 762
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions29
Markets (closed)944 / 683
History coverage150d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day17.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 29 History 944 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5,025
7 days−$5,067
14 days−$3,592
30 days−$3,592
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 25¢ 100¢ $20 $80 +$60 (+298%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Over 20¢ 50¢ $25 $63 +$38 (+152%)
Spread: United States (-1.5) United States 23¢ 41¢ $30 $53 +$23 (+78%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Over 39¢ 53¢ $30 $41 +$11 (+36%)
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Over 8¢ 32¢ $10 $41 +$31 (+306%)
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 4¢ 20¢ $7 $36 +$29 (+411%)
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 12¢ 18¢ $20 $30 +$10 (+50%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Over 8¢ 22¢ $10 $28 +$18 (+181%)
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 5¢ 9¢ $12 $22 +$10 (+85%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-12%)
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-8%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-15%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-19%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Paraguay? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Exact Score: United States 3 - 3 Paraguay? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Christian Pulisic: 2+ goals Yes 7¢ 6¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Paraguay? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+60%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Morocco? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-33%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Over 3¢ 4¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+22%)
Exact Score: United States 2 - 3 Paraguay? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Adelaide International, Qualification: Jesper de Jong vs Thiago Agusti Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION (BO3) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Jun 13 $23 −$23 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Seahawks vs. 49ers Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Macarthur FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Valencia CF win on 2025-12-19? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 11PM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 27, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -96%
Will Millwall FC win on 2026-01-01? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-12-14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 26, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 26, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Johnny Speeds (BO3) Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 27, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Kings vs. Panthers Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Oilers vs. Maple Leafs Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will AFC Ajax win on 2025-12-20? Jun 13 $22 −$22 -100%
Celtics vs. Trail Blazers Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Bristol City FC vs. Middlesbrough FC end in a draw? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Mozambique win on 2025-12-24? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Panthers vs. Lightning Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Botswana win on 2025-12-27? Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$8 -68%
Valparaiso Beacons vs. Northwestern Wildcats Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Howard Bison vs. Drexel Dragons Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
CF Cruz Azul vs. Atlas FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 10PM ET Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Manchester City FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-12-20? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-12-20? Jun 13 $17 −$17 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Melbourne Victory FC vs. Perth Glory FC end in a draw? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
South Carolina State Bulldogs vs. Charleston Southern Buccaneers Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 16? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -106%
Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5) Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: Washington vs CSDIILIT (BO3) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Blues vs. Panthers Jun 13 $17 −$17 -100%
Chiefs vs. Raiders Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Sheffield Wednesday FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 2AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 65% +$773
sports 22% −$1,058
other 12% +$65
world 0% −$55
finance 0% −$20
tech 0% +$79
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: United States 3 - 3 Paraguay? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 3 Paraguay? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 3¢ $5 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 8¢ $10 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 20¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 3 Paraguay? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 3 Paraguay? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-46.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 376 -89.5% -90.5% 4% 3% -81.0%
≤30d 484 -66.3% -69.5% 14% 13% -31.8%
≤90d 484 -66.3% -69.5% 14% 13% -31.8%
all 944 -41.3% -46.9% 19% 18% -26.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover17.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.9% 18% -26.8%
10% -52.0% 18% -33.8%
15% -56.6% 18% -40.2%
20% -60.9% 17% -46.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $595.15 · official $591.14 (match) · 3500 history records