Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:42:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x51cf…106c other 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$547 (-11%) realized −$548 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%4W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$222per market
Trades / day14.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit9%portable
Net worth$699now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% −$575
crypto 6% −$3
sports 2% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -15.6% -23.6% 21% 21% -24.9%
≤30d 19 -15.6% -23.6% 21% 21% -24.9%
≤90d 19 -15.6% -23.6% 21% 21% -24.9%
all 19 -15.6% -23.6% 21% 21% -24.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.6% 21% -24.9%
10% -30.9% 21% -32.1%
15% -37.6% 21% -38.6%
20% -43.7% 16% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$293 vs −$117 · ×2.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$699
Realized−$548
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses4 / 15
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)19 / 22
History coverage3d
Avg bet$222
Trades / day14.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit9%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $400 $403 +$3 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $299 $296 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $103 +$594 +580%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $203 +$218 +107%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 3 Paraguay? Jun 20 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 20 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $253 +$170 +67%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $205 −$200 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $177 −$172 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $377 −$135 -36%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $403 −$400 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $256 −$11 -4%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $103 −$51 -49%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $100 −$97 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $97 −$5 -5%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $90 −$9 -10%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $511 +$188 +37%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $103 −$18 -17%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $268 −$260 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $303 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $404 6h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AN BUY 5¢ $514 6h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 100¢ $697 6h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 99¢ $421 6h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 8h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 3 Paraguay? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 8h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 8h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $203 8h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $423 11h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 12h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 12h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 12h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 9¢ $74 13h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 13h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $253 17h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 13¢ $121 40h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 79¢ $403 42h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 14¢ $227 42h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 24¢ $244 42h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? SELL Yes 4¢ $52 42h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 20¢ $100 43h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 43h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 43h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 8¢ $92 43h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $81 43h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $97 2d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $90 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $256 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $256 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $699.40 · official $1,199.39 · 37 history records