Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:18:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x51d3…a4c7 other 106 markets active 2h ago coverage 488d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$21 (-0%) realized −$22 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate38%39W / 65L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$41
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$4
world 40% −$15
sports 10% −$3
finance 2% $0
politics 1% +$2
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -1.0% -10.4% 33% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 30 -0.2% -9.7% 43% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 45 -0.1% -9.6% 38% 0% -9.7%
all 104 +0.2% -9.3% 38% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.3%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 75% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

488d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses39 / 65
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions2
Markets (closed)104 / 106
History coverage488d
Avg bet$131
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $39 $40 +$1 (+3%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 9¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 21 $20 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 21 $141 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $145 +$1 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $53 −$1 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 19 $39 −$3 -8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $84 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $147 +$2 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $162 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 16 $14 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $266 −$28 -10%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $310 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $264 −$13 -5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $128 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $12 +$1 +5%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $1 $0 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $159 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $169 +$14 +8%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $411 −$3 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $193 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $152 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $517 +$24 +5%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $113 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $318 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $4 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $348 +$2 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $354 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $353 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $172 −$10 -6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $111 −$1 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $8 +$1 +9%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 22 $57 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 21 $147 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $85 −$3 -4%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $423 −$1 -0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 26 $41 +$2 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in April 2026? Apr 24 $4 $0 -1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $75 −$2 -3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 20 $1,043 +$1 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $42 −$1 -3%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 19 $1,051 −$2 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $955 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 19 $2,010 −$3 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 18 $272 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 18 $1,892 −$1 -0%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Aug 10 $9 $0 +2%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 24 $6 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 24 $24 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 24 $23 $0 -1%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 23 $11 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $39 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 7¢ $8 29h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 29h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 29h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 7¢ $7 29h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 7¢ $20 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $21 42h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $121 42h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $141 45h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $146 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $49 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $96 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $52 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $53 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 12¢ $35 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 13¢ $39 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $14 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $14 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $27 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $58 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $84 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $56 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $10 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $74 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $8 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $147 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $162 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $162 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.45 · official $40.42 (match) · 385 history records