Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:04:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
51 0x51d3…1719 sports 87 markets active 2h ago coverage 249d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$2,762 (+7%) realized +$2,748 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%35W / 44L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$458per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$55est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$1,014now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 249d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$1,866
other 26% +$3,655
world 1% −$223
politics 0% −$100
crypto 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +3.5% -6.4% 39% 39% +27.7%
≤30d 37 +4.5% -5.4% 41% 41% +27.8%
≤90d 37 +4.5% -5.4% 41% 41% +27.8%
all 79 +12.2% +1.5% 44% 44% +3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.5% 44% +3.0%
10% -8.2% 41% -6.8%
15% -17.1% 30% -15.8%
20% -25.2% 25% -24.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +41% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$521) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +22% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$479 vs −$264 · ×1.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

249d coverage
Net worth$1,014
Realized+$2,748
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses35 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$55
Open positions2
Markets (closed)79 / 87
History coverage249d
Avg bet$458
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $500 $527 +$27 (+5%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $500 $486 −$14 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $325 −$240 -74%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 −$35 -68%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- Jun 20 $1,050 +$1,789 +170%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $409 −$409 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $223 +$217 +97%
Spread: Canada (-5.5) Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $303 +$173 +57%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $41 −$35 -86%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $103 −$102 -99%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 18 $101 −$101 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $305 +$462 +151%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$40 +40%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $110 +$126 +115%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $540 +$855 +158%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $223 −$223 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $808 +$220 +27%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $521 +$677 +130%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $441 −$441 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $138 +$733 +530%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $405 −$172 -42%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $102 +$148 +146%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $489 +$1,218 +249%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $101 −$5 -5%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $608 −$598 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$57 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $150 −$15 -10%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $203 −$203 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
UFC 322: Shevchenko vs. Weili (Women's Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $221 −$221 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Tü Jun 14 $103 −$103 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $508 +$534 +105%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $706 +$303 +43%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $3,598 +$1,151 +32%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $2,250 +$439 +20%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner Nov 02 $99 −$97 -97%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner Nov 02 $100 −$95 -95%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Nov 01 $1,350 −$1,044 -77%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 01 $297 +$1,286 +432%
Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 01 $60 +$223 +371%
Will Anyone’s Legend win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 31 $500 −$233 -47%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) Oct 30 $1,699 +$408 +24%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner Oct 30 $187 −$187 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner Oct 30 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Oct 30 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5) Oct 29 $1,135 +$359 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 31¢ $78 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $203 5h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $17 5h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 5h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 5h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- BUY 36¢ $510 17h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- BUY 36¢ $540 17h
Spread: Canada (-5.5) SELL Qatar 1¢ $1 30h
Spread: Canada (-5.5) BUY Qatar 65¢ $51 31h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 35h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 35h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $307 35h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $202 35h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY 42¢ $224 43h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY 50¢ $223 43h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18 BUY 35¢ $10 43h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18 BUY 36¢ $214 43h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $513 44h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 35¢ $102 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $102 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 58¢ $101 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 60¢ $304 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 57¢ $30 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,013.89 · official $1,013.89 (match) · 269 history records