Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:21:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
51 0x51d4…cc7e other 25 markets active 3h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$285 (+26%) realized +$286 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%10W / 14L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days+$183
14 days+$269
30 days+$269
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% +$176
sports 12% +$119
crypto 11% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -14.8% -23.0% 39% 39% +8.2%
≤30d 24 -7.2% -16.0% 42% 42% +15.2%
≤90d 24 -7.2% -16.0% 42% 42% +15.2%
all 24 -7.2% -16.0% 42% 42% +15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 42% +15.2%
10% -24.0% 42% +4.2%
15% -31.4% 42% -5.9%
20% -38.1% 25% -15.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +27% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$24 · ×2.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.79 per $1 lost it wins $1.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized+$286
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses10 / 14
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage9d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 21 $10 −$8 -81%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$6 +110%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$46 +46%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $51 +$63 +124%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$50 +50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$36 +70%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$149 +291%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$46 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$50 +50%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $31 +$76 +249%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $31 −$29 -96%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $51 +$86 +170%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 3h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $51 7h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 21h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 21h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down $5 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 3d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $2 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 4d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 4d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 4d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $147 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $151 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 5d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up $5 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $107 6d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $1 6d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $31 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $41 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.26 · official $99.26 (match) · 54 history records