Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:27:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

51 0x51d6…6531 crypto 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 619d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL −$578 (-6%) realized −$579 · open +$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip

Net edge-9%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate96%25W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$343per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$2,594now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days$0

30 days$0

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-9.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	4	+0.3%	-9.3%	100%	0%	-9.3%
all	26	+0.3%	-9.3%	96%	0%	-17.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-9.3%	0%	-17.4%
10%	-18.0%	0%	-25.3%
15%	-25.9%	0%	-32.5%
20%	-33.2%	0%	-39.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 33% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +0% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +0% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$0 vs −$584 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.01 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

619d coverage

Net worth$2,594

Realized−$579

Unrealized+$1

Win rate (resolved)96%

Wins / losses25 / 1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)26 / 27

History coverage619d

Avg bet$343

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 26 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24?	No	100¢	100¢	$2,593	$2,594	+$1 (+0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March?	Apr 03	$20	$0	+0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March?	Apr 03	$27	$0	+0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March?	Apr 03	$45	$0	+0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March?	Apr 03	$69	$0	+0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February?	Mar 05	$5	$0	+1%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February?	Mar 05	$13	$0	+0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February?	Mar 05	$21	$0	+0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February?	Mar 05	$28	$0	+0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February?	Mar 05	$29	$0	+0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February?	Mar 05	$65	$0	+0%
Will Solana dip to $150 in September?	Feb 17	$3	$0	+3%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.12 in September?	Feb 17	$4	$0	+0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in September?	Feb 17	$4	$0	+1%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 in September?	Feb 17	$5	$0	+0%
Will Solana dip to $175 September 8–14?	Feb 17	$6	$0	+0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in September?	Feb 17	$6	$0	+0%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in September?	Feb 17	$7	$0	+4%
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September?	Feb 17	$8	$0	+1%
Will Solana dip to $100 in September?	Feb 17	$10	$0	+0%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 September 8–14?	Feb 17	$13	$0	+3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September?	Feb 17	$19	$0	+1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September?	Feb 17	$33	$0	+0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September?	Feb 17	$40	$0	+1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by March 31?	Apr 04	$581	+$1	+0%
Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election?	Feb 04	$579	+$2	+0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	Oct 24	$5,028	−$584	-12%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24?	BUY No	100¢	$2,593	1h
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March?	BUY No	100¢	$69	111d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March?	BUY No	100¢	$20	111d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March?	BUY No	100¢	$45	111d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March?	BUY No	100¢	$27	111d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February?	BUY No	100¢	$29	126d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February?	BUY No	100¢	$21	126d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February?	BUY No	99¢	$5	126d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February?	BUY No	100¢	$65	126d
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February?	BUY No	100¢	$28	126d
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February?	BUY No	100¢	$13	126d
Will Ethereum reach $5000 September 8–14?	BUY No	97¢	$13	285d
Will Solana dip to $175 September 8–14?	BUY No	100¢	$6	285d
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in September?	BUY No	100¢	$6	285d
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September?	BUY No	99¢	$8	285d
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in September?	BUY No	96¢	$7	285d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September?	BUY No	99¢	$40	285d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September?	BUY No	99¢	$19	285d
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September?	BUY No	100¢	$33	285d
Will Solana dip to $150 in September?	BUY No	97¢	$3	285d
Will Solana dip to $130 in September?	BUY No	99¢	$4	285d
Will Solana dip to $100 in September?	BUY No	100¢	$10	285d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.12 in September?	BUY No	100¢	$4	285d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 in September?	BUY No	100¢	$5	285d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by March 31?	BUY No	100¢	$381	458d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by March 31?	BUY No	100¢	$200	458d
Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election?	BUY Yes	100¢	$127	516d
Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election?	BUY Yes	100¢	$83	517d
Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election?	BUY Yes	100¢	$76	517d
Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election?	BUY Yes	100¢	$244	517d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,594.30 · official $2,594.30 (match) · 60 history records