Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T10:59:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x51d7…516d sports 111 markets active 1h ago coverage 210d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$305 (-6%) realized −$305 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate54%58W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days−$25
14 days−$137
30 days−$154
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$34
sports 46% −$320
crypto 1% −$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +5.5% -4.6% 56% 50% -13.7%
≤30d 77 +1.0% -8.6% 57% 55% -13.8%
≤90d 100 -3.7% -12.9% 54% 52% -14.8%
all 108 -2.7% -12.0% 54% 52% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 52% -15.3%
10% -20.4% 45% -23.4%
15% -28.1% 38% -30.8%
20% -35.1% 26% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$33 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

210d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$305
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses58 / 50
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions2
Markets (closed)108 / 111
History coverage210d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $14 +$9 +63%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Jun 28 $11 +$27 +238%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 27 $23 −$23 -100%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 25 $11 +$4 +40%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $36 −$13 -36%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $32 +$4 +12%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $30 +$2 +6%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $61 $0 -1%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 24 $47 +$13 +27%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $71 +$13 +19%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $37 −$33 -88%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 23 $30 −$1 -4%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $21 +$13 +62%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $52 +$26 +50%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $34 +$18 +53%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers Jun 22 $59 −$59 -100%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers Jun 18 $14 +$6 +42%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M Jun 18 $30 −$16 -52%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $58 +$1 +1%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $67 +$26 +40%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $38 +$28 +73%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $181 −$181 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$12 +40%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 −$1 -5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $45 +$21 +46%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$5 +23%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $26 +$22 +86%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $202 +$101 +50%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 16 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $31 +$49 +159%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $86 +$30 +36%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $69 −$69 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $51 −$49 -96%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$35 +113%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$16 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $42 +$18 +43%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $24 +$19 +79%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $20 −$9 -44%
England leading at halftime? Jun 10 $20 +$11 +57%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $80 +$13 +16%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $50 +$15 +29%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. LG Twins Jun 10 $12 +$10 +81%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. KT Wiz Jun 10 $20 +$15 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $30 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals AND Erlin BUY 9¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 60¢ $14 23h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will BUY 29¢ $11 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 63¢ $15 3d
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Kiwoom Heroes SELL Kia Tigers 87¢ $16 4d
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Kia Tigers 60¢ $11 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 38¢ $23 4d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 29¢ $23 4d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $5 4d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $31 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 53¢ $35 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 46¢ $32 4d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 59¢ $32 4d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $30 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 65¢ $60 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $61 5d
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers SELL New York Yankees 100¢ $60 5d
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY New York Yankees 78¢ $47 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $47 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $32 5d
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 8¢ $5 5d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $37 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 65¢ $38 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $39 5d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $51 5d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 55¢ $29 6d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 56¢ $30 6d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 77¢ $34 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.34 · official $59.34 · 254 history records