Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:56:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
51 0x51da…a701 sports 93 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$238 (-1%) realized −$475 · open +$237
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate64%56W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$175per market
Trades / day16.6pace
Fees−$156est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$1,337now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,266
7 days−$944
14 days−$944
30 days−$944
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$506
other 11% −$114
weather 1% −$88
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 -0.7% -10.1% 64% 57% -15.2%
≤30d 87 -0.7% -10.1% 64% 57% -15.2%
≤90d 87 -0.7% -10.1% 64% 57% -15.2%
all 87 -0.7% -10.1% 64% 57% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 57% -15.2%
10% -18.7% 47% -23.3%
15% -26.6% 34% -30.7%
20% -33.8% 26% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$164 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$1,337
Realized−$475
Unrealized+$237
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses56 / 31
Est. fees paid−$156
Open positions6
Markets (closed)87 / 93
History coverage7d
Avg bet$175
Trades / day16.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-2.5) Golden State Valkyries 54¢ 78¢ $300 $431 +$131 (+44%)
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-6.5) Minnesota Lynx 65¢ 87¢ $300 $403 +$103 (+34%)
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Las Vegas Aces 72¢ 66¢ $300 $273 −$27 (-9%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 75¢ 90¢ $140 $168 +$27 (+19%)
Spread: PortlandFire (-4.5) Seattle Storm 53¢ 56¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? No 19¢ 20¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $104 $0 -0%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Washington Mystics (-4.5) Jun 17 $306 −$300 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$10 +10%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 +$39 +39%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $51 +$16 +32%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-7.5) Jun 17 $102 +$90 +88%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $203 +$63 +31%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $107 −$88 -82%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $203 +$44 +22%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $203 +$44 +22%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 171.5 Jun 17 $205 −$205 -100%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 176.5 Jun 17 $205 −$205 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $61 −$61 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 17 $308 −$308 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 17 $378 −$378 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $184 −$184 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 Jun 17 $1,021 −$1,021 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $102 −$48 -47%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 16 $101 +$11 +11%
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 168.5 Jun 16 $51 +$49 +95%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 +$49 +95%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $103 +$132 +129%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $102 +$99 +96%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $102 −$10 -10%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$4 +4%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $123 +$95 +78%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-6.5) Jun 15 $467 +$410 +88%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $459 +$9 +2%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $423 +$37 +9%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $305 +$62 +20%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $306 +$137 +45%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $102 +$68 +67%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $102 +$56 +55%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $102 +$43 +42%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $203 +$53 +26%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $102 +$64 +63%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $406 +$21 +5%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 14 $306 +$177 +58%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $52 −$52 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $204 −$204 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 14 $153 −$153 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $143 1h
Spread: PortlandFire (-4.5) BUY Seattle Storm 53¢ $51 1h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Las Vegas Aces 72¢ $306 1h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $103 1h
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-2.5) BUY Golden State Valkyries 54¢ $307 1h
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-6.5) BUY Minnesota Lynx 65¢ $306 8h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 48¢ $51 8h
Spread: Washington Mystics (-4.5) BUY Connecticut Sun 62¢ $306 8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $203 10h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $141 20h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $51 24h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $101 24h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $102 24h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 24h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 24h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 24h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 15¢ $19 25h
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY No 19¢ $10 29h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 77¢ $107 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $102 30h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $102 30h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 29¢ $54 30h
Spread: Indiana Fever (-7.5) BUY Indiana Fever 52¢ $102 32h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 75¢ $203 32h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $203 32h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 66¢ $102 32h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $102 32h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $104 46h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 52¢ $102 47h
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY Minnesota Lynx 89¢ $101 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,337.24 · official $1,333.46 (match) · 186 history records