Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:18:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

51
0x51de…9e4a
world · 99 markets active 0h ago
0.5score
+$15,079 +46%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$16,145 · open −$463
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$15,404
Realized+$16,145
Unrealized−$463
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses15 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Open positions50
Markets (closed)49 / 99
History coverage22d
Avg bet$330
Trades / day26.1
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit78%
Chart Positions 50 History 49 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$15,772
14 days+$16,727
30 days+$16,145
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $3,861 $3,909 +$49 (+1%)
Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in June 2026? Yes 68¢ 80¢ $1,583 $1,858 +$276 (+17%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $1,377 $1,309 −$68 (-5%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $1,303 $1,268 −$35 (-3%)
US takes Panama Canal before 2027? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $897 $947 +$49 (+5%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Yes 27¢ 30¢ $600 $675 +$75 (+12%)
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay Yes 17¢ 18¢ $626 $639 +$13 (+2%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? No 18¢ 18¢ $485 $500 +$15 (+3%)
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027? No 69¢ 66¢ $481 $465 −$15 (-3%)
Xi meets with Lee Jae-Myung by December 31? No 40¢ 20¢ $712 $364 −$348 (-49%)
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Yes 71¢ 78¢ $300 $329 +$29 (+10%)
Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2026? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $341 $256 −$85 (-25%)
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in June? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $306 $246 −$60 (-20%)
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? Yes 64¢ 58¢ $260 $239 −$21 (-8%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 24¢ 48¢ $100 $198 +$98 (+98%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $200 $197 −$3 (-2%)
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by June 30? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $130 $168 +$38 (+30%)
Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2026? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $157 $157 +$0 (+0%)
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $172 $156 −$16 (-9%)
Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO day? Yes 7¢ 10¢ $100 $143 +$43 (+43%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $134 $129 −$5 (-4%)
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $124 $120 −$4 (-3%)
Will there be 1-2 North Korea tests in June 2026? No 78¢ 84¢ $100 $109 +$9 (+9%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NIKE Q4 Greater China revenue be above $1.4B? Jun 14 $92 −$79 -86%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $100 +$41 +41%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $150 +$133 +88%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $30 +$76 +252%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $100 −$79 -79%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 12 $100 −$66 -66%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $64 −$19 -29%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 11 $256 −$185 -72%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $100 −$74 -74%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 11 $242 −$161 -67%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 11 $304 −$233 -77%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $1,129 −$403 -36%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 10 $200 −$200 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 10 $87 −$87 -100%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? Jun 10 $27 −$10 -39%
Will Trump say "Khamenei" or "Khomeini" this week? Jun 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by May 31? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $510 +$159 +31%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 08 $41 −$2 -6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $100 +$43 +42%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $165 +$33 +20%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $1,000 +$154 +15%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $200 +$511 +256%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $77 +$1,656 +2146%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $3,862 +$14,587 +378%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $154 +$711 +462%
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by Augus Jun 06 $22 −$8 -35%
Will Xi Jinping purge Dong Jun in 2026? Jun 06 $103 −$57 -55%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $104 +$60 +58%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 02 $62 −$6 -10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $1,000 −$105 -10%
Will Bessent say "China" during Press Briefing? Jun 01 $26 +$4 +14%
Will there be fewer than 2 North Korea tests in May 2026? Jun 01 $1,549 +$351 +23%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $10 +$6 +64%
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in May? May 31 $2 −$2 -87%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 26 $104 −$36 -35%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 26 $312 −$33 -11%
Will Xi Jinping purge Zhang Shengmin in 2026? May 25 $104 −$5 -5%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another country? May 25 $50 −$28 -56%
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? May 25 $416 −$37 -9%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 24 $692 −$27 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 23 $104 −$55 -53%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $5 −$3 -60%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 23 $312 −$269 -86%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $52 −$9 -16%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 23 $104 −$80 -77%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 65% +$16,552
other 26% −$543
tech 4% −$184
politics 4% −$142
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $4 2m
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 5m
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $23 12m
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $277 13m
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 16m
Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $137 18m
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 21m
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31? BUY Yes 61¢ $2 21m
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31? BUY Yes 61¢ $2 21m
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31? BUY Yes 61¢ $2 21m
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 27m
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31? BUY Yes 61¢ $12 27m
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31? BUY Yes 61¢ $85 28m
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $263 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $7 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $27 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $56 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $28 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $28 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $56 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $28 1h
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $101 1h
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $101 1h
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $101 1h
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $101 1h
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $20 1h
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 1h
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $100 1h
Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $25 1h
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay BUY Yes 17¢ $105 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +64.1% +48.4% 36% 36% +148.7%
≤30d 49 +36.8% +23.8% 31% 31% +92.3%
≤90d 49 +36.8% +23.8% 31% 31% +92.3%
all 49 +36.8% +23.8% 31% 31% +92.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover26.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +23.8% 31% +92.3%
10% ← realistic here +12.0% 24% +73.9%
15% +1.1% 20% +57.1%
20% -8.8% 16% +41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15,403.62 · official $15,401.64 (match) · 598 history records