Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:05:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x51df…0fca other 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 427d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$119 (-3%) realized −$12 · open −$107
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate72%29W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$543now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$57
world 23% +$27
politics 20% −$83
sports 4% −$68
culture 4% +$17
tech 3% +$12
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 6 -65.2% -68.5% 33% 0% -18.2%
all 40 -13.2% -21.5% 72% 22% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.5% 22% -10.6%
10% -29.0% 15% -19.2%
15% -35.9% 8% -27.0%
20% -42.1% 5% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 42% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% too few recent
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$34 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

427d coverage
Net worth$543
Realized−$12
Unrealized−$107
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses29 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions12
Markets (closed)40 / 52
History coverage427d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? No 95¢ 97¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 97¢ 98¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $75 $74 −$1 (-1%)
Eileen Gu citizenship revoked ? No 94¢ 97¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Will Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record? No 65¢ 18¢ $150 $41 −$109 (-73%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? Yes 78¢ 77¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026? No 80¢ 92¢ $17 $19 +$3 (+15%)
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026? No 55¢ 59¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 Over 56¢ 56¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%? No 80¢ 79¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027? Yes 24¢ 10¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 19 $20 +$1 +7%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 06 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Oly May 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026? May 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 23, 2026 (ET)? May 05 $200 +$3 +1%
Will Finland win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Ol Feb 23 $300 +$16 +5%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Jan 22 $200 +$4 +2%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jan 21 $100 +$8 +8%
US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026? Jan 18 $100 +$4 +4%
X banned in U.K. by March 31? Jan 12 $40 +$4 +10%
Will Venezuela become 51st state? Jan 11 $190 +$4 +2%
2025 September 4th or lower hottest on record? Jan 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jan 04 $40 +$2 +5%
Will Germany recognize Palestine in 2025? Jan 04 $50 +$3 +6%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2025? Jan 04 $140 +$18 +13%
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives in 2025? Jan 04 $325 +$26 +8%
Will the Vancouver Canucks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Dec 26 $80 −$68 -86%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Nov 11 $77 +$5 +6%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Nov 11 $20 +$1 +7%
Current shutdown longest in U.S. history? Oct 20 $155 +$24 +15%
Will RFK Jr. find the cause of Autism before November? Oct 18 $90 +$20 +23%
Will JD Vance say Charlie/Kirk 50+ times during the Charlie Kirk Show Oct 11 $5 −$5 -100%
US-China tariff agreement before 90 day deadline? Oct 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the UK recognize Palestine in 2025? Oct 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $178 +$17 +10%
Will Canada recognize Palestine in 2025? Sep 20 $48 −$22 -46%
Will JD Vance say Political violence during the Charlie Kirk Show on M Sep 16 $5 +$1 +30%
Will JD Vance say Trans/Transgender 3+ times during the Charlie Kirk S Sep 16 $5 +$2 +33%
Will Trump say "War" during 9-11 memorial event? Sep 15 $10 +$4 +41%
Will the U.S. acquire Canadian territory in 2025? Sep 07 $150 +$3 +2%
Trump restores local control of DC Police by August 31? Sep 02 $50 +$2 +3%
Will MrBeast raise $40M for clean water by August 31? Aug 25 $5 +$6 +114%
Will GPT-5 be released by December 31? Aug 09 $100 +$6 +6%
Will GPT-5 be released by July 31? Aug 01 $50 +$6 +12%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30? Jul 01 $218 +$9 +4%
Will Poilievre regain a seat in Canadian Parliament in 2025? Jun 18 $207 +$11 +5%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority? May 17 $203 +$5 +2%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 01 $236 −$236 -100%
Liberals win majority in Canadian election? May 01 $93 +$110 +117%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $10 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $76 1h
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%? BUY No 80¢ $8 40d
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $16 43d
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 93¢ $20 46d
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? BUY Yes 78¢ $20 46d
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $10 46d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $100 46d
Will Trump visit China by May 15? BUY No 10¢ $2 46d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 23, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 99¢ $200 118d
Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $20 118d
Eileen Gu citizenship revoked ? BUY No 94¢ $50 118d
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? BUY No 95¢ $100 118d
Will Finland win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Ol BUY No 95¢ $300 123d
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $6 140d
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $99 141d
Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 141d
Will Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record? BUY No 65¢ $150 141d
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $100 141d
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $54 146d
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $113 146d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $204 150d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $108 150d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 154d
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Oly BUY Yes 44¢ $5 154d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 80¢ $100 154d
X banned in U.K. by March 31? SELL No 91¢ $27 159d
X banned in U.K. by March 31? SELL No 91¢ $1 160d
X banned in U.K. by March 31? SELL No 91¢ $8 160d
X banned in U.K. by March 31? SELL No 91¢ $1 160d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $543.23 · official $543.23 (match) · 374 history records