Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:40:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x51e1…5ec9 sports 263 markets active 1d ago coverage 134d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$10,047 (-7%) realized −$10,047 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate33%86W / 177L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$536per market
Trades / day20.9pace
Fees−$3,726est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 134d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$17,769
crypto 2% −$9
economics 2% −$1,111
world 2% −$629
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -14.8% -22.9% 25% 25% -60.9%
≤30d 49 -17.9% -25.7% 22% 22% -33.6%
≤90d 258 -9.7% -18.3% 31% 31% -23.0%
all 263 -9.3% -17.9% 33% 31% -22.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.9% 31% -22.7%
10% ← realistic here -25.8% 29% -30.1%
15% -32.9% 27% -36.9%
20% -39.5% 22% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$600) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -12% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$629 vs −$416 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10,047
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses86 / 177
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$3,726
Open positions0
Markets (closed)263 / 263
History coverage134d
Avg bet$536
Trades / day20.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 263 Trades
no open positions (135 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 28 $45 −$32 -71%
Set 2 Winner: Navarro vs Ruse Jun 25 $55 −$54 -99%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Caroline Werner vs Alina Charaeva Jun 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Mallorca Championships: Abedallah Shelbayh vs Grigor Dimitrov Jun 24 $52 −$52 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Petra Marcinko vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 24 $99 +$4 +4%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tereza Valentova vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 24 $96 −$94 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Janice Tjen vs Caty McNally Jun 23 $64 +$102 +160%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Aleksandar Vukic Jun 23 $50 −$49 -97%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 15 $2,291 −$820 -36%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 11 $119 −$113 -95%
Perugia: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Andrea Pellegrino Jun 06 $141 −$140 -99%
Birmingham: Arthur Fery vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 06 $145 −$88 -61%
Foggia: Chloe Paquet vs Darya Astakhova Jun 05 $128 −$127 -100%
Centurion 2: Harold Mayot vs Eliakim Coulibaly Jun 05 $58 −$57 -98%
Perugia: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola Jun 04 $246 +$381 +155%
Tyler: Braden Shick vs Masamichi Imamura Jun 04 $102 −$100 -98%
Perugia: Andrea Pellegrino vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 04 $222 −$217 -98%
Birmingham: Harry Wendelken vs Mark Lajal Jun 04 $553 −$543 -98%
Foggia: Mayar Sherif vs Giorgia Pedone Jun 04 $200 +$1,073 +536%
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Gabriela Knutson Jun 04 $200 −$195 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 04 $46 −$45 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $225 −$225 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $100 −$98 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $269 −$263 -98%
Tyler: Blaise Bicknell vs Johannus Monday Jun 03 $105 +$71 +68%
Tyler: Henry Searle vs Mitchell Krueger Jun 03 $151 −$150 -99%
Heilbronn: Henri Squire vs Pedro Martinez Jun 03 $107 −$105 -98%
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Arends/Pel vs Halys/Herbert Jun 03 $11 −$11 -97%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $113 −$110 -97%
Centurion 2: Devin Badenhorst vs Eliakim Coulibaly Jun 03 $150 +$90 +60%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $248 −$244 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $748 −$517 -69%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 02 $314 −$81 -26%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $224 −$220 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea Jun 02 $5 −$5 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $143 −$140 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Jun 01 $254 −$250 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $320 −$313 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Diane Parry Jun 01 $289 −$282 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Zachary Svajda Jun 01 $309 −$16 -5%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $1,560 −$1,530 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev May 31 $515 +$429 +83%
Roland Garros ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Alexander Zverev May 31 $368 −$364 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Belinda Bencic May 31 $377 −$373 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe May 31 $193 +$1,681 +872%
Roland Garros ATP: Moise Kouame vs Alejandro Tabilo May 30 $104 −$104 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Raphael Collignon May 30 $284 +$211 +74%
Roland Garros WTA: Victoria Mboko vs Madison Keys May 30 $265 +$655 +247%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Martin Landaluce May 30 $96 +$169 +176%
Roland Garros WTA: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Amanda Anisimova May 25 $181 −$181 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes $13 25h
Set 2 Winner: Navarro vs Ruse BUY Navarro 64¢ $55 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes $45 4d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Caroline Werner vs Alina Charaeva BUY Caroline Werner $0 4d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Caroline Werner vs Alina Charaeva BUY Caroline Werner $0 4d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Caroline Werner vs Alina Charaeva BUY Caroline Werner $0 4d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Caroline Werner vs Alina Charaeva BUY Caroline Werner $2 4d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Caroline Werner vs Alina Charaeva BUY Caroline Werner $0 4d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Caroline Werner vs Alina Charaeva BUY Caroline Werner $0 4d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Caroline Werner vs Alina Charaeva BUY Caroline Werner $0 4d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Caroline Werner vs Alina Charaeva BUY Caroline Werner $0 4d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Caroline Werner vs Alina Charaeva BUY Caroline Werner $0 4d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Caroline Werner vs Alina Charaeva BUY Caroline Werner $0 4d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Caroline Werner vs Alina Charaeva BUY Caroline Werner $3 4d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Caroline Werner vs Alina Charaeva BUY Caroline Werner $1 4d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Caroline Werner vs Alina Charaeva BUY Caroline Werner $41 4d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Caroline Werner vs Alina Charaeva BUY Caroline Werner $1 4d
Mallorca Championships: Abedallah Shelbayh vs Grigor Dimitrov BUY Abedallah Shelbayh $20 4d
Mallorca Championships: Abedallah Shelbayh vs Grigor Dimitrov BUY Abedallah Shelbayh $4 4d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Petra Marcinko vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Kimberly Birrell 14¢ $0 4d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Petra Marcinko vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Kimberly Birrell 14¢ $21 4d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Petra Marcinko vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Kimberly Birrell 14¢ $7 4d
Mallorca Championships: Abedallah Shelbayh vs Grigor Dimitrov BUY Abedallah Shelbayh $0 4d
Mallorca Championships: Abedallah Shelbayh vs Grigor Dimitrov BUY Abedallah Shelbayh $28 4d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Petra Marcinko vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Kimberly Birrell 18¢ $18 4d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Petra Marcinko vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Petra Marcinko 52¢ $53 4d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tereza Valentova vs Ajla Tomljanovic BUY Ajla Tomljanovic 10¢ $51 4d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tereza Valentova vs Ajla Tomljanovic BUY Ajla Tomljanovic 22¢ $45 4d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Janice Tjen vs Caty McNally SELL Janice Tjen 50¢ $111 5d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Janice Tjen vs Caty McNally SELL Janice Tjen 36¢ $52 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2942 history records