Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:23:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

51 0x51ed…2c6c tech 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d

RISKYcopy with care tech specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$37 (+1%) realized +$36 · open +$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip

Net edge-8%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate100%8W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$257per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$1,040now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 82d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-8.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+0.1%	-9.4%	100%	0%	-9.4%
≤30d	4	+0.1%	-9.4%	100%	0%	-9.4%
≤90d	8	+1.4%	-8.2%	100%	0%	-7.9%
all	8	+1.4%	-8.2%	100%	0%	-7.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-8.2%	0%	-7.9%
10%	-17.0%	0%	-16.7%
15%	-25.0%	0%	-24.8%
20%	-32.4%	0%	-32.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 52% · top 2 88% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$5 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage

Net worth$1,040

Realized+$36

Unrealized+$1

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses8 / 0

Open positions4

Markets (closed)8 / 12

History coverage82d

Avg bet$257

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 8 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	No	100¢	100¢	$318	$318	−$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June?	No	100¢	100¢	$261	$261	−$0 (-0%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	94¢	95¢	$232	$234	+$2 (+1%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	98¢	98¢	$229	$228	−$1 (-0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Jun 23	$250	$0	+0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Jun 23	$250	$0	+0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31	Jun 23	$260	$0	+0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	Jun 23	$279	+$1	+0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	May 19	$133	+$1	+0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	May 19	$155	+$2	+2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April	May 19	$356	+$13	+4%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	May 19	$360	+$19	+5%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	BUY Yes	94¢	$232	1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June	BUY Yes	98¢	$229	1h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June?	BUY No	100¢	$261	1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	BUY No	100¢	$318	1h
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31	BUY No	100¢	$260	34d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	BUY No	100¢	$250	34d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	BUY No	100¢	$250	34d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	BUY No	100¢	$279	34d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	BUY No	98¢	$155	82d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April	BUY Yes	96¢	$356	82d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	BUY No	100¢	$133	82d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	BUY Yes	95¢	$360	82d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,040.48 · official $1,040.48 (match) · 20 history records