Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:04:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x51f0…3651 other 156 markets active 1h ago coverage 540d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$662 (-2%) realized −$652 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate28%43W / 112L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$268per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$120est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$77
7 days−$249
14 days−$294
30 days−$310
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$133
other 30% −$422
world 7% −$113
crypto 5% +$76
politics 3% −$65
tech 1% −$111
finance 1% −$13
economics 0% $0
weather 0% −$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -7.7% -16.5% 13% 0% -15.3%
≤30d 39 -10.0% -18.6% 13% 0% -15.8%
≤90d 89 -8.8% -17.5% 10% 0% -14.5%
all 155 -7.6% -16.4% 28% 4% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 4% -11.3%
10% -24.4% 1% -19.8%
15% -31.7% 1% -27.5%
20% -38.4% 1% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$10 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

540d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$652
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses43 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$120
Open positions1
Markets (closed)155 / 156
History coverage540d
Avg bet$268
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 155 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? No 23¢ 14¢ $24 $14 −$10 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Jun 18 $168 −$2 -1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 18 $451 −$8 -2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $34 $0 +0%
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $304 −$6 -2%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $88 −$9 -11%
Will Celeste Maloy be the Republican nominee for UT-03? Jun 18 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the Jun 18 $122 −$15 -13%
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? Jun 17 $153 −$13 -9%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 17 $162 −$8 -5%
Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Jun 17 $115 −$1 -1%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $162 −$12 -8%
Will April McClain Delaney be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? Jun 17 $30 $0 -0%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $32 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $108 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $142 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $98 $0 +0%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $23 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland be the highest-scoring team in Group B during the Gro Jun 15 $63 −$15 -23%
Will Hylo launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 15 $102 −$25 -25%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 14 $80 −$31 -38%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 14 $60 −$22 -37%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 14 $196 −$4 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $206 −$4 -2%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? Jun 14 $144 −$78 -54%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $338 +$5 +2%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 13 $84 +$4 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $136 −$6 -4%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $3 $0 +3%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $168 +$4 +2%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 in June? Jun 11 $104 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $140 +$1 +1%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 10 $62 −$4 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $32 −$24 -76%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 10 $84 −$18 -21%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 26 $28 −$16 -57%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 26 $86 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 26 $62 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 26 $80 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 26 $20 $0 +0%
Olympique de Marseille vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: O/U 2.5 May 17 $350 −$6 -2%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $500 −$17 -4%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? May 17 $15 −$1 -4%
Pisa SC vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 2.5 May 17 $520 −$17 -3%
Spread: Como 1907 (-1.5) May 17 $460 −$17 -4%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 17 $316 −$15 -5%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 17 $178 −$2 -1%
Will Hannover 96 achieve promotion from Bundesliga 2 to the Bundesliga May 16 $8 $0 -4%
Will Bakir Izetbegović be the Bosniak Presidency Member of Bosnia and May 16 $15 $0 -2%
No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30? May 16 $176 −$6 -3%
Spread: OGC Nice (-1.5) May 16 $490 −$7 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? SELL Up 83¢ $79 1h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? SELL Up 84¢ $87 2h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Up 84¢ $52 2h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Up 84¢ $116 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 50¢ $64 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 52¢ $5 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 52¢ $61 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 55¢ $110 3h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $34 3h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $34 4h
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 52¢ $5 6h
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 52¢ $26 6h
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 52¢ $39 6h
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 52¢ $4 6h
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 52¢ $30 6h
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 55¢ $110 6h
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 45¢ $90 6h
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 45¢ $90 6h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 40¢ $79 7h
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 52¢ $56 7h
Will Celeste Maloy be the Republican nominee for UT-03? SELL No 10¢ $19 7h
Will Celeste Maloy be the Republican nominee for UT-03? BUY No 10¢ $20 7h
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 52¢ $48 7h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 44¢ $88 8h
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 52¢ $104 8h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the SELL No 54¢ $107 9h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 55¢ $110 10h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 54¢ $108 10h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 57¢ $114 11h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? SELL No 73¢ $124 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.18 · official $14.18 (match) · 503 history records