Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:06:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x51f2…71ec crypto 348 markets active 1h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$30 (-0%) realized −$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate2%8W / 340L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$3
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 40% −$14
other 31% −$10
weather 12% −$5
politics 8% −$3
tech 4% −$1
world 2% −$1
culture 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 72 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 348 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 1% -9.6%
all 348 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 1% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 1% -9.6%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×5.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses8 / 340
Open positions0
Markets (closed)348 / 348
History coverage90d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 348 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 19 $57 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 19 $57 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 19 $57 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 19 $57 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 19 $57 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 19 $57 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 19 $57 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 19 $55 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 19 $57 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $57 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $57 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $57 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $120 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $58 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $57 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $55 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $52 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $57 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $56 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $54 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 7? Jun 07 $55 −$1 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $56 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $59 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $59 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in June? Jun 06 $59 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 6? Jun 06 $59 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $160 in June? Jun 06 $50 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 1-7? Jun 06 $59 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? Jun 06 $60 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? Jun 06 $56 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 06 $57 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $60 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $60 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 31? May 31 $121 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 31 $60 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 1? May 31 $60 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 100-101°F on June 1? May 31 $60 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 40°C or higher on June 1? May 31 $60 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on June 1? May 31 $61 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on May 31? May 31 $61 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 May 25-31? May 31 $61 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on May 31? May 30 $61 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May May 30 $61 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on May 31? May 30 $61 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on May 31? May 30 $61 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? May 30 $61 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? May 30 $61 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 30 $60 $0 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of May 30 $62 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 30 $62 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $56 1h
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 1h
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 1h
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 1h
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 1h
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 1h
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 1h
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 1h
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 1h
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $57 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $57 1h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 1h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 1h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 1h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $57 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $57 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $57 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $57 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $57 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $57 1h
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 9d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? SELL No 100¢ $57 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $58 9d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 12d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 785 history records