Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:24:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

51 0x51f4…4bc8 crypto 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ bot/MM pace (92 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted

Total PnL −$182 (-6%) realized +$124 · open −$306

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip

Net edge-22%after slip

Net WR48%break-even

Win rate52%13W / 12L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$109per market

Trades / day92.0pace

Fees−$17est.

Kalshi-fit96%portable

Net worth$937now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

uncopyable — bot pace (92 trades/day)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +48%

net ROI/market (all)-8.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	25	+1.0%	-8.6%	52%	48%	-11.0%
≤30d	25	+1.0%	-8.6%	52%	48%	-11.0%
≤90d	25	+1.0%	-8.6%	52%	48%	-11.0%
all	25	+1.0%	-8.6%	52%	48%	-11.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover92.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-8.6%	48%	-11.0%
10% ← realistic here	-17.3%	44%	-19.5%
15%	-25.3%	44%	-27.3%
20%	-32.7%	40%	-34.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 22% · top 2 43% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

8% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +4% → late -2% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$35 vs −$40 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.94 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$937

Realized+$124

Unrealized−$306

Win rate (resolved)52%

Wins / losses13 / 12

Est. fees paid−$17

Open positions2

Markets (closed)25 / 27

History coverage1d

Avg bet$109

Trades / day92.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 25 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Spread: Egypt (-1.5)	New Zealand	89¢	64¢	$1,049	$760	−$289 (-28%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	17¢	16¢	$194	$177	−$17 (-9%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 22	$200	+$100	+50%
Spread: Uruguay (-3.5)	Jun 22	$602	+$67	+11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Jun 21	$10	−$10	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Jun 21	$10	−$10	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Jun 21	$10	+$10	+100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Jun 21	$10	+$10	+100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Jun 21	$10	−$10	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Jun 21	$10	+$10	+100%
Spread: Spain (-3.5)	Jun 21	$302	−$298	-99%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla	Jun 21	$42	−$42	-100%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom - Map 2 Winner	Jun 21	$99	+$76	+77%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom - Map 1 Winner	Jun 21	$133	+$94	+71%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Close	Jun 21	$18	−$5	-30%
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A	Jun 21	$68	+$39	+57%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21?	Jun 21	$73	−$57	-78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Jun 21	$42	−$42	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Jun 21	$20	+$30	+150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Jun 21	$4	+$6	+148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Jun 21	$2	−$2	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Jun 21	$8	+$12	+150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Jun 21	$1	−$1	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Jun 21	$4	−$4	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Jun 21	$1	−$1	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Jun 21	$1	+$1	+114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Jun 21	$5	$0	+4%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: Egypt (-1.5)	BUY New Zealand	89¢	$719	50m
Spread: Egypt (-1.5)	BUY New Zealand	89¢	$44	51m
Spread: Egypt (-1.5)	BUY New Zealand	89¢	$0	51m
Spread: Egypt (-1.5)	BUY New Zealand	89¢	$8	53m
Spread: Egypt (-1.5)	BUY New Zealand	89¢	$8	54m
Spread: Egypt (-1.5)	BUY New Zealand	89¢	$16	56m
Spread: Egypt (-1.5)	BUY New Zealand	89¢	$218	56m
Spread: Egypt (-1.5)	BUY New Zealand	89¢	$35	58m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5	SELL Over	100¢	$300	1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	17¢	$199	1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	66¢	$200	1h
Spread: Uruguay (-3.5)	BUY Cabo Verde	90¢	$520	3h
Spread: Uruguay (-3.5)	BUY Cabo Verde	90¢	$45	4h
Spread: Uruguay (-3.5)	BUY Cabo Verde	90¢	$37	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$10	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$10	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$4	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$1	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$5	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$10	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$2	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$8	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$10	5h
Spread: Spain (-3.5)	SELL Saudi Arabia	1¢	$4	8h
Spread: Spain (-3.5)	BUY Saudi Arabia	67¢	$302	11h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom - Map 2 Winner	SELL Phantom	90¢	$85	12h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom - Map 2 Winner	SELL Phantom	90¢	$5	12h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom - Map 2 Winner	BUY Phantom	67¢	$67	12h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom - Map 2 Winner	SELL Phantom	85¢	$85	12h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom - Map 2 Winner	BUY Phantom	32¢	$1	12h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $936.70 · official $936.70 (match) · 113 history records