Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:27:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
51 0x51fb…5123 other 124 markets active 3h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate14%17W / 106L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$218per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$13
politics 31% −$10
sports 11% +$13
economics 5% −$1
crypto 2% $0
world 1% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 10 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 81 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
all 123 -1.7% -11.0% 14% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 7% -9.6%
10% -19.6% 5% -18.2%
15% -27.3% 2% -26.1%
20% -34.5% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×5.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses17 / 106
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)123 / 124
History coverage128d
Avg bet$218
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $224 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $154 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $199 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $152 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $212 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $211 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $535 −$1 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $197 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $335 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 19 $206 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $567 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $155 +$1 +0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $543 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 16 $160 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $433 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $635 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $384 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $594 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $214 $0 -0%
Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 10 $226 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 10 $215 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $516 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $215 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $224 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $164 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 18 $190 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $387 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $220 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $433 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $166 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $188 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $177 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $175 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 14 $210 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $168 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $412 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $205 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $383 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $230 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 11 $178 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $176 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $224 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 08 $199 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 08 $186 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $185 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 08 $207 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 07 $393 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $392 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $547 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 3h
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $30 16d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $30 16d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 17d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 17d
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $154 17d
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $154 17d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $199 22d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 24d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $152 24d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $152 25d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $212 25d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $212 26d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $211 26d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $211 26d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $162 26d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $162 26d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $197 27d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $197 28d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $156 29d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $156 30d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $206 30d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $206 30d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $194 30d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $194 31d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $174 32d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $174 33d
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $155 33d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $167 34d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $167 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.98 · official $31.98 (match) · 366 history records