Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:03:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x51fc…6946 crypto 308 markets active 18h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$397 (+9%) realized +$397 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate49%152W / 156L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$317
7 days−$304
14 days−$318
30 days−$183
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% +$623
sports 38% −$91
other 9% −$167
politics 3% −$3
world 2% −$27
economics 1% +$1
culture 0% +$24
weather 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -65.0% -68.4% 20% 18% -77.3%
≤30d 96 -25.0% -32.2% 49% 35% -33.0%
≤90d 308 -7.6% -16.4% 49% 43% -2.0%
all 308 -7.6% -16.4% 49% 43% -2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 43% -2.0%
10% -24.4% 35% -11.4%
15% -31.7% 30% -19.9%
20% -38.4% 26% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$9 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$397
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses152 / 156
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions0
Markets (closed)308 / 308
History coverage75d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 308 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$9 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$7 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$7 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Centurion: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Giles Hussey Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: Fnatic vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Quali Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Zachary Svajda Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Victoria Mboko vs Madison Keys Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs Natus Vincere (+2.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Moise Kouame vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Jun 17 $41 −$17 -42%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Naomi Osaka Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Maria Sakkari vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol B win on 2026-05-31? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. LG Twins Jun 17 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $13 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $12 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $12 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 5d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster 15¢ $3 5d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner SELL Gen.G 89¢ $9 5d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 63¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1069 history records